Modern theory of probability is formulated on the footing of measure theory. Use this tag if your question is about this theoretical footing (for example probability spaces, random variables, law of large numbers, central limit theorems, and the like). Use (probability) for explicit computation of ...

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414 views

Compact set of probability measures

I think I can solve the following exercise if X is assumed to be separable, otherwise I can't. Let $X$ be a (Hausdorff) locally compact space, $\pi\colon X \to Y$ a continuous map into a ...
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269 views

A question connected with the decomposition of a functional on $C(X)$ on Riesz and Banach functionals

Let $X$ be a metric space and let $C(X)$ be a family of all bounded and continuous functions from $X$ in $\mathbb{R}$. We call a positive linear functional $\varphi: C(X) \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ the ...
8
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163 views

Uniqueness of Brownian motion

May be it is a dumb question, but it vexed me a little bit. I understand the construction of the Brownian motion (first use Kolmogorov extension theorem to construct value at dyadic times and then use ...
7
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72 views

Uncountable family of random variables

Let $\{ \xi _a \}_{a \in [0;1]}$ be a family of independent uniformly distributed on $[0;1]$ random variables on some probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr{F},P)$, indexed by a continuous parameter. ...
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241 views

How do you compute numerically the Earth mover's distance (EMD)?

I was trying to compute numerically (write a program) that calculated the EMD for two probability distribution $p_X$ and $q_X$. However, I had a hard time finding an outline of how to exactly compute ...
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125 views

How well can the maximum of a Gaussian process be approximated by a finite-dimensional Gaussian variable?

Consider a compact set $K$ in $\mathbb{R}^p$, and let $W$ be a mean zero continuous Gaussian process on $K$, meaning that $W$ takes its values in the space of continuous functions from $K$ to ...
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160 views

Sufficient condition in terms of stopping times for a stochastic process to be a local supermartingale

(Question edited in response to Nate's comment) Let $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a continuous (or càdlàg), real-valued process, and define stopping times $\tau_{s,a,b}=\inf~ [s,\infty)\cap\{t:X_t\notin ...
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76 views

Why “One cannot construct more than countably many independent random variables”?

I'm reading the book "Large Networks and Graph Limits" by László Lovász. On the page 18 he said the following: One cannot construct more than countably many independent random variables (in a ...
6
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125 views

Recurrence of a certain class of $2$-$d$ random walks

As is well known, a symmetric random walk on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ (the lattice of $d$ dimensional vectors with integer components) is recurrent if and only if $d=1,2$. In particular it is transient for ...
6
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400 views

Azuma's inequality to McDiarmid's inequality?

I was going through some notes on concentration inequalities when I noticed that there are two commonly-cited forms of McDiarmid's inequality. Long story short: I know how to prove the weaker one from ...
6
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1k views

Are vague convergence and weak convergence of measures both weak* convergence?

For quite a long time, I have been confused about the definitions of weak convergence and vague convergence of measures among other modes of convergence that root from functional analysis, mainly due ...
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130 views

Proving existence of limit by Martingale.

I'm thinking about a question: Suppose $y_n > −1$ for all $n$ and $\sum |y_n| < \infty$. Show that $\prod_{m=1}^\infty (1 + y_m)$ exists. Since $\sum |y_n| < \infty$, we must be able ...
6
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167 views

Question on Conditional expectation

Let $X_1$ and $X_2$ be two random variables on $(\Omega,\mathcal{B},P)$. Suppose there is a function $g:\mathcal{B}\times\mathbb{R}\rightarrow[0,1]$ such that for any $x$, $g(\cdot,x)$ is a ...
6
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321 views

Hölder Continuity of Fractional Brownian Motion

I would like to prove the following theorem: Let $H\in (0,1)$. The fractional Brownian motion $B_H$ admits a version whose sample paths are $a.s.$ Hölder continuous of order strict less than $H$. ...
6
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184 views

Regular Version of Conditional Gaussian Distribution

Let $Z_{1}$ and $Z_{2}$ be two independent normally distributed random variables with expectations $\mu_{1},\mu_{2}\in\mathbb{R}$ and variances $\sigma_{1}^2,\sigma_{2}^2\in (0,\infty)$ . I would ...
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347 views

Calculating probability of some event using geometric considerations

I want to estimate exponentially the following probability: Let $\bf{U}\in\mathbb{R}^n$ be a random vector uniformly distributed on the $n$-dimensional hypersphere, centered at the origin with radius ...
6
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147 views

Closure in the Space of Probability Measures with the Prohorov metric

I have seen this result stated countless times: assume the metric space $(\theta,d)$ is separable; then $(\theta,d)$ is complete if and only if the space $(\mathcal{P}(\Theta),\rho)$ (the space of ...
6
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152 views

Calculating $\sum_{y=0}^x \Pr[Y= y] \Pr[Z\leq k-y]^2$ when Y,Z are binomially distributed?

Remark: I recently rewrote this post, hoping to get answers! I am analyzing the following experiment: Pick an $x \in \{0,\ldots,2k\}$ uniformly at random Pick $(2k+1)$-bit bitstring $b_1=(u,v_1)$ ...
6
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168 views

Expected Number of Convex Layers and the expected size of a layer for different distributions

It is well-known that the expected number of vertices on the convex hull of random set of points in the plane distributed uniformly within a $k$-gon is $O(k\log n)$ and within a smooth shape (e.g. a ...
5
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70 views

Finding an upper bound for $\frac{d}{d\theta}\beta^*(\theta)|_{\theta=\theta_0}$

Suppose that a random variable X has a distribution depending on a parameter $\theta$, $\theta \in \Theta$, and consider a test of hypothesis $H_0: \theta = \theta_0$ versus the alternative $H_1: ...
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66 views

Upper bounding a Poisson Process with indicators of exponentials

Define $E_1,E_2,\ldots, E_i,\ldots E_n$ as i.i.d. exponentials with parameter $\lambda$. These define processes on some interval $[0,\delta]$ (think of $\delta$ as very small, it will come into play ...
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77 views

representation theorem on the path space

I'm working on a project and have done some work. However, there are some point where I'm unsure if my thoughts are correct. It would be appreciated if someone could share their thoughts about it. ...
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115 views

Fractal dimension of Gaussian white noise is infinite?

I read in this paper that the fractal dimension of Gaussian white noise is infinite. The paper does not prove it nor give a reference to support it. I failed to find a reference from online searching. ...
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139 views

Intuition for the optimality of bold play

There is a standard result (I think originally by Dubins and Savage) that if one wants to maximise the probability of winning a certain amount in an unfair game of chance then an optimal strategy is ...
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75 views

Regularity of test functions in the definition of the total variation distance

As is well-known, the total variation distance between (the laws of) two random variables $X$ and $Y$ defined on $\mathbb{R}$ is given by $\sup |E[g(X)]-E[g(Y)]|$, where the supremum is taken over all ...
5
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83 views

Confusion in the proof of properties for $\psi$-irreducibility

Let $P$ be a stochastic kernel on a measurable space $(\mathsf X,\mathfrak B(\mathsf X))$. The kernel $P$ is called $\varphi$-irreducible if for a positive measure $\varphi$ and for all measurable ...
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332 views

weak law of large numbers: proof using characteristic functions vs proof using truncation

In Varadhan's lecture notes on Probability Theory (they are online here and on Amazon here) in Exercise 3.6 he writes: The weak law may hold sometimes, even if the mean does not exist. If we ...
5
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281 views

Portmanteau theorem for vague convergence

I would like to investigate if an analog of the classical Portmanteau theorem holds for vague convergence of Radon measures. Here are the definitions I'm using. Let $X$ be a Hausdorff locally ...
5
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0answers
200 views

Do probability distributions form a comonad?

$\def\unit{{\rm unit}}\def\join{{\rm join}}$It's well known that (discrete) probability distributions form a monad. Specifically, if we let $PX$ be the set of discrete probability distributions on ...
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208 views

Where does directed random walk hit the boundary?

I have a problem that I more or less know the answer to, but would really like to see it done in a systematic, rather than ad hoc way. In spite of this, I will pose the question in a very concrete ...
5
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293 views

Topological necessary and sufficient condition for tightness

Recall the definition of tightness for a probability measure $\mathbb P$ on the Borel $\sigma$-algebra of a metric space $(S,d)$: For each $\varepsilon>0$, we can find a compact subset $K$ of ...
5
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204 views

Weak convergence of stochastic process

For a stochastic process with trajectories in $C[0,1]$ why is it that convergence of the finite dimensional distributions is not sufficient for weak convergence,unless we also have relative ...
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1k views

Dunford-Pettis Theorem

The Dunford-Pettis Theorem (see Uniform Integrability Wiki) states that: A class of random variables $X_n \in L^1(\mu)$ is Uniformly Integrable if and only if it is relatively weakly compact. Now ...
5
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473 views

Idempotence and the Rao–Blackwell theorem

Original question: In the Wikipedia article on the Rao–Blackwell theorem, we read: In case the sufficient statistic is also a complete statistic, i.e., one which "admits no unbiased ...
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829 views

Monotone class theorem

I have some question about the Monotone Class Theorem and its application. First I state the Theorem: Let $\mathcal{M}:=\{f_\alpha; \alpha \in J\}$ be a set of bounded functions, such that ...
5
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124 views

Probability Constructions

$y_n$ is a sequence of probability measures on $\mathbb{R}$ such that $y_n\rightarrow y$ where $y$ is another probability measure on $\mathbb{R}$. Construct an example where: $\int x \; dy_n$ ...
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36 views

Permutation order statistics integral

Let $U_i$ be $[0,1]$ i.i.d. uniform random variables, for $i=1,\ldots,n$. As an example, let $n=3$. Now pick an ordering, say $x_1>x_2<x_3$. and consider the order statistics integral ...
4
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51 views

A formula similar to $\int_a^bf(x)dx=\mu\left[a,b \right]$ for $f^p$.

Let $\mu$ be an absolutely continuous measure with respect to the Lebesgue measure on $\mathbb{R}$ , and $f:\mathbb{R}\to \mathbb{R^+}$ its Radon-Nikodym derivative . We can write $\int_a^bf(x)dx$ in ...
4
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0answers
74 views

Uniform integrability of the maximum of a random walk with negative drift

Given $S_k^{(n)} = X_1^{(n)} + ... + X_k^{(n)}$ for all $k,n\in\mathbb{N}$, where the $X_i^{(n)}$'s are iid with mean $-\gamma$ for some $\gamma > 0$ and unit variance. Let ...
4
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48 views

Markov chains and natural filtration

I have the following problem Consider a homogeneous Markov chain $(X_n)$ with countable state set $E$. Suppose that $A$ is a proper subset of $E$ and consider the stopping times $\tau^0=0 $ and ...
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136 views

An exercise from Revuz, Yor; equality in distribution of 2 integrals.

Here is the exercise I have been struggling to solve. It is taken from this book by Revuz and Yor: link. Here is the full text of the problem ( Exercise 3.32, chapter 4). Exercise (3.32). Let $B$ and ...
4
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0answers
225 views

Weak and Probability convergences

I have a question about this book, "Topics in Random Matrices Theory" of Terence Tao. He claims that if $$\int_{\mathbb{R}}\varphi \ ...
4
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101 views

What are the extreme points of the set of probability measures on $(\mathbb N, \mathcal{F})$?

Say, we have some $\sigma$-algebra on $\mathbb N$ and let $\mathbb P$ be the set of all probability measures on it. We know that $\mathbb P$ is convex, so I wonder how do the extreme points look like. ...
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86 views

Submartingality of generalized stochastic exponential of a BMO martingale

I attended a talk today on BMO martingales. It was my first encounter with the subject, and this may explain my inability to solve this myself. We take a continuous local martingale $L$, and say ...
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62 views

Convergence in distribution of bernoulli rv over square root of uniform rv

This is a question from an old comprehensive exam: Let $U$ be a $\operatorname{Uniform}[0,1]$ random variable and let $X$ be a $\operatorname{Bernoulli}(1/2)$ random variable independent of $U$. ...
4
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77 views

Identifying the joint distribution from some values of $t \cdot X$

Suppose that $S$ is a subset of $\mathbb{R}^n$ and $X, Y$ are $\mathbb{R}^n$ valued RVs. We already know that $X$ and $Y$ are equidistributed iff $t \cdot X=^d t\cdot Y$ for all $t \in \mathbb{R}^n$. ...
4
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0answers
113 views

Time scaling of Brownian motion

Let $(B_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a standard Brownian motion and $A_t$ be an increasing continuous process adapted to the filtration generated by the Brownian Motion and $A_0 = 0$. I am trying to prove ...
4
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0answers
88 views

Could you please help me understand the discrepancy metric?

I am trying to understand the discrepancy metric and its properties. It is defined as $$d_D(\mu,\nu):=\sup_{\small \mbox{ all closed balls}\,\, B}|\mu(B)-\nu(B)|$$ for probability measures $\mu$ and ...
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87 views

Probability theory: Cheating husband and subway

Here is the problem: Man cheats on his wife, everyday after work. So when the work day ends he goes to a subway station and waits for a train. Here is a subway map: ...
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296 views

A question on Regular Conditional Probability

Let $X$ & $Y$ be random vectors. Let $Z$=$f(X,Y)$ be a random variable. Then if $X$ & $Y$ are independent, the following is a well known result: $P(f(X,Y)\in B\mid Y=y)$ = $P(f(X,y)\in B)$ ...