Use this tag only if your question is about the modern theoretical footing for probability, for example probability spaces, random variables, law of large numbers, and central limit theorems. Use [tag:probability] instead for specific problems and explicit computations. Use ...

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5
votes
1answer
740 views

Conditional expectation $E[X\mid\max(X,Y)]$ for $X$ and $Y$ independent and normal

I am trying to obtain the conditional expectation $$E[X\mid Z]$$ where $Z= \max(X,Y)$ and $X,Y$ are independent Gaussian random variables.
4
votes
4answers
492 views

Expected number of frog jumps

There is frog jumping forward on a line. Each jump distance is random with a known cumulative distribution function $F$. What is the expected number of jumps to reach (or go beyond) distance $d$ from ...
3
votes
1answer
200 views

Is a probability of 0 or 1 given information up to time t unchanged by information thereafter?

Given a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr{F}, \{\mathscr{F}_n\}_{n \in \mathbb{N}}, \mathbb{P})$, let $A \in \mathscr{F}$. Suppose $$\exists t \in \mathbb{N} \ \text{s.t.} \ E[1_A | ...
3
votes
2answers
192 views

The strong Markov property with an uncountable index set

The following definition of the strong Markov property, from Klenke's book, supposes an index set $I$ that is not necessarily countable. However, it is explicitly mentioned previously (following Lemma ...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

Calculating stationary distribution of markov chain

I am asked to compute the stationary distribution of the markov chain with state space $E=\{0\dots,n\}$ and transition matrix below: \begin{bmatrix} 0 & 1 \\ \frac{1}{n} ...
2
votes
2answers
542 views

The distribution of barycentric coordinates

Let $\mathcal{X} = \{x_1,\dots,x_n\} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ and let $Z$ be a random variable uniformly distributed over convex hull of $\mathcal{X}$, denoted as $\text{conv}(\mathcal{X})$. Assuming ...
2
votes
2answers
821 views

First hitting time for a brownian motion with a exponential boundary

Let $B_t$ be the standard Brownian Motion. Is the distribution/density of the first hitting time of $B_t$ for an exponential decaying boundary known? Trying to be more formal, if ...
1
vote
2answers
131 views

If $\{X_n\}$ converges in probability to $1$, where does $\{1/X_n\}$ converge to?

Without using the continuous mapping theorem, I want to show that, given $\{X_n\}$ is a sequence of random variables converging in probability to $1$, $\{1/X_n\}$ converges in probability to $1$. The ...
0
votes
2answers
261 views

Is a non-negative random variable with zero mean almost surely zero?

We have proven the following in class: If $X$ is a finite random variable with $X\geq 0$ then $$E(X)=0 \iff P(X=0)=1$$ (By finite I meant that the range has finitely many elements). Does it ...
15
votes
1answer
2k views

Under what circumstance will a covariance matrix be positive semi-definite rather than positive definite?

I have a covariance matrix: $\operatorname{cov}(\mathbf{X}, \mathbf{X}) = \operatorname{E}[(\mathbf{X} - \operatorname{E}[\mathbf{X}])(\mathbf{X} - \operatorname{E}[\mathbf{X}])^T]$ According to ...
8
votes
0answers
252 views

Uniqueness of the random variable from its distribution [closed]

Moderator's Note: This question has been put on hold due to the version over at MathOverflow having received better attention and produced an accepted answer. Interested readers are advised to ...
7
votes
1answer
196 views

Estimates for the normal approximation of the binomial distribution

I'm interested in estimates of the normal approximation for binomial distributions, i.e. in estimates of $$\sup_{x\in\mathbb R}\left|P\left(\frac{B(p,n)-np}{\sqrt{npq}} \le x\right) - ...
7
votes
1answer
3k views

The strong and weak laws of large numbers: Why two?

The following questions are entirely based on the corresponding article from Wikipedia. The assumptions of both laws are the same, and the strong law has a more general claim than the one of the weak ...
6
votes
0answers
242 views

proving equalities in stochastic calculus

I am struggling with this question: FIRST PART (almost done, but stuck somewhere): Let $Z $~$ N(0,1)$ be a standard normal random variable, and define a function $F$ by the formula \begin{equation} ...
6
votes
3answers
312 views

Do the Kolmogorov's axioms permit speaking of frequencies of occurence in any meaningful sense?

It is frequently stated (in textbooks, on Wikipedia) that the "Law of large numbers" in mathematical probability theory is a statement about relative frequencies of occurrence of an event in a finite ...
6
votes
2answers
306 views

Proof of the infinitude of primes by probabilistic methods.

I'm looking if there is proof of the infinitude of prime numbers using probabilistic method. I am motivated by the answer of my question here. The answer is based on a relationship between ...
5
votes
1answer
121 views

An expectation inequality

Let $X$ and $Y$ be iid random variables, and $\mathbb E[|X|]<\infty$, prove that $$\mathbb E[|X+Y|]\geq\mathbb E[|X-Y|]$$ Let $F(x)$ denote the distribution, after calculation, I need to prove ...
5
votes
2answers
298 views

Infinite Inclusion and Exclusion in Probability

Is there some way of generalizing the principle of inclusion and exclusion for infinite unions in the context of probability? In particular, I would like to say that $P(\bigcup_{n=1}^{\infty}A_n) = ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

Showing $\cos(t^2)$ is not a Characteristic Function

Usually when we try to show a function is not a characteristic function, we would prove it is not uniformly continuous. I am wondering if there is any other way to show $\cos(t^2)$ is not a ...
4
votes
0answers
114 views

Why not defining a measure as a function on functions?

A measure $\mu$ is a function to $\left[0,\infty\right]$ on the sets belonging to a $\sigma$-algebra. Then for integrable functions $f$ the integral $\int fd\mu$ comes in, having nice properties ...
4
votes
1answer
503 views

central limit theorem for a product

Given $-1\leq x_i\leq 1$ identically distributed random variables for $i=1,2,\dots n$. What is the distribution function of their product? Is there a central limit theorem for products if $n$ is ...
4
votes
1answer
648 views

IID Random Variables that are not constant can't converge almost surely

I am trying to prove the following. If $\{ X_n \}$ are iid random variables and not constant, then $R:=P\{ \omega \mid X_n(\omega)\text{ converges} \}=0$ Using independence I know that by ...
4
votes
1answer
246 views

Joint distribution by independent distributions

We have $N$ independent discrete finite random variables (RVs) $X_1,\dots,X_i,\dots,X_N$ where RV $X_i$ has $M_i$ finite number of elements. We are free to choose any distribution $f_i$ for RV $X_i$ ...
4
votes
1answer
2k views

Independent and mutually exclusive

Prove or disprove via proof that events $X$ and $Y$ can be independent and mutually exclusive if both of their probabilities are greater than $0$.
4
votes
2answers
8k views

Expected Value of a Hypergeometric Random Variable

How do you show, that the expected value of a hyper-geometric random variable X with parameters $r$,$w$, and $n$ (a box contains $r$ red balls, $w$ white balls and $n$ balls are drawn without ...
4
votes
6answers
582 views

Sleeping Mathematician (Sleeping Beauty)

I came across the following thought experiment, and I would like to understand whether the controversy around it is justified. Imagine an experiment in which a mathematician is put to sleep with some ...
4
votes
1answer
652 views

Expectation of $TS_T$ where $T$ is the absorption time at $\{a,-a\}$ of a simple symmetric random walk $\{S_n\}$

I was trying to calculate the expectation of $T^2$ using some martingale and got that I needed the expectation of $TS_T$. Any idea?
3
votes
2answers
87 views

Hashing upper bound?

I am hashing $n^2$ objects into $n$ slots and all slots have equal probabilities of taking in the values, and I am trying to find an upper bound on the expected maximum number of objects in any slot. ...
3
votes
2answers
194 views

Do moments define distributions?

Do moments define distributions? Suppose I have two random variables $X$ and $Y$. If I know $E[X^k] = E[Y^k]$ for every $k \in \mathbb N$, can I say that $X$ and $Y$ have the same distribution?
3
votes
2answers
81 views

Convergence to $N(0,1)$ in distribution

Question is as following: $X\sim Po(\lambda)$ $$\frac{X-\lambda}{\sqrt{\lambda}} \,{\buildrel d \over \rightarrow}\, N(0,1)$$ as $\lambda \rightarrow \infty$. Obs. One is asked not ...
3
votes
1answer
136 views

Pairwise independence of Random variables does not imply indendence

Show by a counterexample that for a family $(X_i)_{i\in I}$ of random variables the independence of all pairs $(X_i,X_j)$ with $i,j\in I, i\neq j$ does not imply the independence of the family ...
3
votes
2answers
169 views

Show that $\lim\limits_{n\rightarrow\infty} e^{-n}\sum\limits_{k=0}^n \frac{n^k}{k!}=\frac{1}{2}$

Show that $\displaystyle\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty} e^{-n}\sum_{k=0}^n \frac{n^k}{k!}=\frac{1}{2}$ using the fact that if $X_j$ are independent and identically distributed as Poisson(1), and ...
3
votes
1answer
180 views

Functions and convergence in law

Let $X$ be a random variable taking values in some metric space $M$. Let $\{\phi_n\}$ be a sequence of measurable functions from $M$ to another metric space $\tilde M$. Suppose that $\phi_n(X)$ ...
3
votes
0answers
224 views

Independence in infinite sequence of random variables

I was reading this page from planetmath. It states the following, Consider an infinite sequence of independent random variables $\{X_n,n\in \mathbb{N}\}$. Using the Monotone Class Theorem one ...
3
votes
2answers
920 views

Product of independent random variables

The following is a classic example that pairwise independent does not necessarily imply mutually independent: Let $X_1$ and $X_2$ be independent r.v.'s with distributions ...
2
votes
1answer
157 views

Martingale formulation of Bellman's Optimality Principle

Related question: Deducing an optimal gambling strategy (using martingales). What I tried: For no 2, if $\ln Z_n - n \alpha$ is a supermartingale, then for $m < n$, $$E[\ln Z_n - n \alpha ...
2
votes
2answers
332 views

Limit value of a product martingale

This question came from a problem i was solving for self-study. I'll state the problem first: Let $Y_n \sim \mathcal N(0,\sigma^2)$ be independent normally distributed variables, $X_n = ...
2
votes
1answer
270 views

Conditional expectation and martingales

I have a few questions concerning martingales. Let $Y\in \mathcal{L}^1(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})$ be given, and $(\mathcal{F}_n)$ a filtration, and define $X_n:=\mathbb{E}[Y|\mathcal{F}_n]$. We ...
2
votes
5answers
4k views

Some case when the central limit theorem fails

If I understand correctly, for various versions of the central limit theorems (CLT), when applying to a sequence of random variables, each random variable is required to have finite mean and finite ...
2
votes
3answers
513 views

Uniform distribution on $\mathbb Z$ or $\mathbb R$

I was assisting once the course in Probability Theory where students learnt quite quickly that there are ways to assign the uniform distribution to any finite set - or even subsets of $\mathbb R$ of a ...
2
votes
3answers
1k views

limit in probability is almost surely unique?

I read this proposition in a book, which was not proved. And I cannot verify it myself. Could anyone help me out here? If $$X_{n}\rightarrow X$$ in probability and $$X_{n}\rightarrow Y$$ almost ...
2
votes
0answers
2k views

Expected value of max/min of random variables

I am trying to solve the following problem. Let there be $n$ urns and let us have $k$ balls. Assume we put every ball into one of the urns with uniform probability. Denote by $X_i$ the random ...
1
vote
0answers
44 views

Why do people all the time exploiting almost sure properties of a stochastic process as if they were sure properties?

All the time, I see people working with a given Brownian motion $(B_t)_{t\ge 0}$ on a fixed probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal A,\operatorname P)$ and suddenly exploiting its almost sure properties ...
1
vote
1answer
124 views

Asymmetric Random Walk / Prove that $E[T:= \inf\{n: X_n = b\}] < \infty$

Given random variables $Y_1, Y_2, \ldots \stackrel{iid}{\sim} P(Y_i = 1) = p = 1 - q = 1 - P(Y_i = -1)$ where $p > q$ in a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \{\mathscr F_n\}_{n \in ...
1
vote
1answer
85 views

Assume $A,B,C,D$ are pairwise independent events. Decide if $A\cap B$ and $B\cap D$ are independent

Assume A,B,C,D, are pairwise independent events. Decide if $(A \cap B)$ and $(B \cap D)$ are independent events? Then repeat this assuming the four events are mutually independent. Well, what I'm ...
1
vote
1answer
137 views

What is the joint distribution of two random variables?

Today I was thinking about this and I have the feeling I am missing something obvious, but I can't seem to solve it. Suppose we have a continuos random variable $X$ with density $f_X(x)$. Let $Y = ...
1
vote
1answer
68 views

$E|X-m|$ is minimised at $m$=median

For a continuous random variable $X$, I want to show that $E|X-m|$ is minimum implies $m$ is the median of the distribution. Assume that the distribution function is $F$ and the density function is ...
1
vote
1answer
120 views

Probability of highest common factor in Williams

In David Williams' Probability with Martingales, $\exists$ this exercise. Let $s > 1$ and let $\zeta(s) = \sum_{n=1}^\infty n^{-s}$. Let $X$ and $Y$ be independent $\mathbb{N}$-valued random ...
1
vote
1answer
327 views

Convergence in probability implies convergence in mean under one additional condition

Prove that if random variables $X_n$ are dominated by an integrable random variable then $E[X_n] \to E[X]$ follows if $X_n$ converges to $X$ in probability. Hint: Use the following theorem : A ...
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vote
0answers
126 views

When can a measurable mapping be factorized?

Problem 13.3 of Probability and Measure by Billingsley states: $(\Omega, \mathcal{F})$ and $(\Omega', \mathcal{F}')$ are two measurable spaces. Suppose that $f: \Omega \rightarrow ...