Use this tag only if your question is about the modern theoretical footing for probability, for example probability spaces, random variables, law of large numbers, and central limit theorems. Use [tag:probability] instead for specific problems and explicit computations. Use [tag:probability-...

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9
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3answers
2k views

What does the -log[P(X)] mean in the calculation of entropy?

The entropy (self information) of a discrete random variable X is calculated as: $$ H(x)=E(-log[P(X)]) $$ What does the -log[P(X)] mean? It seems to be something like ""the self information of each ...
7
votes
2answers
159 views

Why is it that $\mathscr{F} \ne 2^{\Omega}$?

From Williams' Probability with Martingales: 2.3. Examples of $(\Omega, \mathcal{F})$ pairs We leave the question of assigning probabilities until later. (a) Experiment: Toss coin twice. ...
6
votes
1answer
280 views

Borel-Cantelli Lemma “Corollary” in Royden and Fitzpatrick

The Borel-Cantelli Lemma in Royden and Fitzpatrick's "Real Analysis" seems to be a sort of "corollary" of the non-probabilistic ones I see online. It says: "Let $(E_k)_{k=1}^{\infty}$ be a countable ...
3
votes
0answers
111 views

Compound Distribution — Log Normal Distribution with Log Normally Distributed Mean

Could someone please point me to a source or suggest ways in which we can obtain the Distribution, Density Functions, Expected Value, etc. of a Log Normal Distribution whose mean (actually, the mean ...
2
votes
1answer
644 views

Borel-Cantelli lemma problem [duplicate]

Practice problem for exam: Let ${A_n}$ satisfy $\sum_{n=1}^\infty P(A_n \cap A^c_{n+1}) < \infty$ and $\lim_{n\to \infty} P(A_n) = 0$. Show that $P(\lim \sup A_n) = 0$. I can see that it is ...
13
votes
2answers
579 views

Why do we want probabilities to be *countably* additive?

In probability theory, it is (as far as I am aware) universal to equate "probability" with a probabilistic measure in the sense of measure theory (possibly a particularly well behaved measure, but ...
8
votes
2answers
2k views

Prokhorov metric vs. total variation norm

Let $(S,d)$ be a metric space and let $\mathcal P(S)$ denote the space of Borel probability measures on $S$ endowed with the Prokhorov metric $\pi:\mathcal P(S)\times \mathcal P(S)\to \mathbb R_+$ ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

Convergence in law and uniformly integrability

I'm looking for an elementary way of showing the following. If $(X_n)$ and $X$ are random variables such that $X_n \to X$ in distribution and such that $\{X_n\mid n\geq 1\}$ are uniformly integrable, ...
6
votes
2answers
146 views

Approximation of conditional expectation

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})$ be a complete probability space. Let $\mathcal{A}$ be a complete sub-$\sigma$-algebra of $\mathcal{F}$. For the moment assume that $X$ is a random variable with ...
3
votes
3answers
1k views

Conditional mean on uncorrelated stochastic variable

I know that $E[X|Y]=E[X]$ if $X$ is independent of $Y$. I recently was made aware that it is true if only $\text{Cov}(X,Y)=0$. Would someone kindly either give a hint if it's easy, show me a reference ...
2
votes
1answer
228 views

Problems on expected value

I'm self studying probability theory and I'm stuck in the following problems 1) Prove the following for a random variable $X$ with cdf $F$ $$E(x)=\int_0^\infty (1-F(x)) dx - \int_\infty^0 F(x) dx$$ ...
8
votes
1answer
2k views

Is $p$-norm decreasing in $p$?

I could show that $\|\cdot\|_p$ is decreasing in $p$ for $p\in (0,\infty)$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$. Following are the details. Let $0<p<q$. We need to show that $\|x\|_p\ge \|x\|_q$, where $x\in \...
6
votes
1answer
658 views

Limit of sums of iid random variables which are not square-integrable

The Central Limit Theorem tells us that for an iid sequence of random variables $(X_n)_{n\geq 0}$ of finite variance $\sigma^2$ and zero mean $$\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{S_n}{\sqrt{n}}=^d N(0,\sigma^2)$$...
5
votes
1answer
776 views

When the sum of independent Markov chains is a Markov chain?

I try to find as much as possible cases, when the chain $Z(t) = |X_1(t)-X_2(t)|$ is Markov, where $X_1(t)$ and $X_2(t)$ are independent, discrete-time and space, preferably non-homogeneous Markov ...
5
votes
3answers
1k views

A Good Book for Mathematical Probability Theory [duplicate]

I am from mathematical background, and I always hated the way they teach elementary probability theory in schools without giving any clue about measure theory. I want a theoretical book in ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

Combinations of characteristic functions: $\alpha\phi_1+(1-\alpha)\phi_2$

Suppose we are given two characteristic functions: $\phi_1,\phi_2$ and I want to take a weighted average of them as below: $\alpha\phi_1+(1-\alpha)\phi_2$ for any $\alpha\in [0,1]$ Can it be proven ...
5
votes
1answer
587 views

If X and Y are equal almost surely, then they have the same distribution, but the reverse direction is not correct

Show that if two random variables X and Y are equal almost surely, then they have the same distribution. Show that the reverse direction is not correct. If $2$ r.v are equal a.s. can we write $\...
4
votes
1answer
341 views

Is the set of all probability measures weak*-closed?

Let $(\Omega,\Sigma)$ be a measurable space. Denote by $ba(\Sigma)$ the set of all bounded and finitely additive measures on $(\Omega,\Sigma)$ (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ba_space for a ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

application of strong vs weak law of large numbers

By definition, the weak law states that for a specified large $n$, the average is likely to be near $\mu$. Thus, it leaves open the possibility that $|\bar{X_n}-\mu| \gt \eta$ happens an infinite ...
4
votes
1answer
1k views

Weak convergences of measurable functions and of measures

My question is "how weak convergences of measurable functions is defined?" There seems to be two different definitions which are both based on weak convergence of measures generated by the measurable ...
3
votes
3answers
579 views

Different of mapsto and right arrow

Could someone please explain to me what is the difference in the two arrows$$\rightarrow$$ and $$\mapsto$$ For example in Probability wih Martingales (Willams) Thank you.
3
votes
1answer
153 views

Probability that a sequence of random variables converges to 0 or 1

Fix $\alpha , \beta > 0$ with $\alpha + \beta = 1$ and consider the sequence of random variables defined by $X_0 = \theta \in (0,1)$ and $$P(X_n = \alpha + \beta X_{n-1} \mid X_{n-1} , ... , X_0) =...
3
votes
1answer
246 views

How expected value is related to density function?

Let $X$ be a random variable on $(\Omega, \Sigma, P)$. The expected value of $X$ is defined as $$EX = \int X \,dP.$$ But when we calculate $EX$, we often use $$ EX = \int_{-\infty}^\infty xf(x) dx $$...
3
votes
2answers
283 views

Let $X_1$ and $X_2$ are independent $N(0, \sigma^2)$ random variables. What is the distribution of $X_1^2 + X_2^2$?

Let $X_1$ and $X_2$ are independent $N(0, \sigma^2)$ which means (mean = 0, variance = $\sigma^2$) random variables. What is the distribution of $X_1^2 + X_2^2$? My approach is that $X_1\sim N(0, \...
3
votes
1answer
102 views

For a distribution function $F(x)$ and constant $a$, integral of $F(x + a) - F(x)$ is $a$.

For any distribution function and any $a \geq 0$, $\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} (F(x+a)-F(x))dx = a$. In this case, "distribution function" means a right continuous function F with $F(-\infty) = 0$, $F(\...
2
votes
1answer
147 views

“Fair” game in Williams

In David Williams' Probability with Martingales, $\exists$ this exercise. What's fair about a fair game? Let $X_i$, i = 1, 2, ... be indp RVs s.t. $X_i = i^2 - 1$ with prob $1/i^2$ and $-1$ with ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

Is continuous L2 bounded local martingale a true martingale?

I can prove it briefly, but I found a "counter" example. (There must be a mistake in the following words...) I can prove: X is a continuous local martingale, with $X_0=0$ a.s, then X is $L_2$ bounded ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

Rule with independent random variables and conditional expectations

I want to use a rule for conditional expectation I found in (German) wikipedia, not in my script/textbook of probability theory, I guess it should be simple and follow more or less straight from the ...
2
votes
3answers
1k views

limit in probability is almost surely unique?

I read this proposition in a book, which was not proved. And I cannot verify it myself. Could anyone help me out here? If $$X_{n}\rightarrow X$$ in probability and $$X_{n}\rightarrow Y$$ almost ...
1
vote
1answer
1k views

Likelihood Function for the Uniform Density.

Let the random variable $X$ have a uniform density given by $$ f(x;\theta)=I_{[\theta-\frac{1}{2},\theta+\frac{1}{2}]} $$ where $-\infty\leq\theta\leq\infty $ the likelihood function for a sample of ...
1
vote
1answer
155 views

(Ito lemma proof): convergence of $\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}f(W(t_{i}))(W(t_{i+1})-W(t_{i}))^{2}.$

The purpose of this question is to complete my personal exposition on the rigorous proof of Ito's lemma. I have consulted more than half a dozen mathematical finance texts and not a single one, for ...
1
vote
1answer
264 views

Markov processes driven by the noise

Let $\xi_n\in \Xi$ be a sequence of iid random variables with $n \in\mathbb N\cup\{0\}$, which we call a noise process. Construct a process $$ Z_{n+1} = f(Z_n,\xi_n)\quad(\star) $$ with $Z_0\in E$ ...
9
votes
1answer
430 views

Can you make money on coin tosses when the odds are against you?

The strategy Given an initial investment $n$ dollars and a "bet buffer" $b$. Calculate the bet size $x=\left\lfloor\frac{n}{2^b-1}\right\rfloor$ dollars. Wager $x$ dollars on random variable $C$ ...
6
votes
1answer
922 views

Finding an example of a discrete-time strict local martingale.

Find an example of a discrete-time local martingale that is not a true martingale. I was thinking hard for some time about this fun problem. I know that $\mathbb{E}[|M|_t]=\infty \text{ for some } ...
4
votes
2answers
118 views

How can I show that the “binary digit maps” $b_i : [0,1) \to \{0,1\}$ are i.i.d. Bernoulli random variables?

In this post What is the Lebesgue measure of the set of numbers in $[0,1]$ that has two thirds of ones in their infinite base-2 expansion? we needed the fact that if we let $b_i (x) \in \{0,1\}$ for $...
3
votes
5answers
301 views

Probability distribution for the perimeter and area of triangle with fixed circumscribed radius

Given a circle with radius R = 1, I'm trying to find either the probability distribution function or the density function for the space of triangle, which is randomly selected on this circle. The same ...
2
votes
2answers
2k views

Expected value of the minimum (discrete case)

Maybe related to this question In the comments of this question they say that it gets easier if the variables are identically and independently distributed. But i don't see how because in my case the ...
2
votes
2answers
278 views

At a party $n$ people toss their hats into a pile in a closet.$\dots$ [duplicate]

Question: At a party $n$ people toss their hats into a pile in a closet. The hats are mixed up, and each person selects one at random. What is the expected number of people who select their own hats? ...
2
votes
1answer
615 views

Is a random variable constant iff it is trivial sigma-algebra-measurable?

I found a proof here for a measurable function (instead of probability theory's random variable) being constant if and only if the sigma-algebra generated by it is the trivia sigma-algebra, I think (...
2
votes
1answer
579 views

Convergence of characteristic functions to $1$ on a neighborhood of $0$ and weak convergence

Prove the following statement: $ X_n \Rightarrow 0 $ (convergence in distribution) if and only if $ (\exists\; \epsilon>0: |t|<\epsilon) \;\; \phi_n(t) \rightarrow 1 $, where $\phi_n(t)$ is ...
2
votes
1answer
468 views

Probability of throwing balls into bins

You are throwing n balls into m bins randomly. What is the probability to be empty of the first $k$ bin? Given $k$ bins are empty. What is the probability to be empty of $(k+1)th$ bin? Forget the ...
2
votes
1answer
698 views

Probability of asymmetric random walk returning to the origin

Consider the random walk $S_n$ given by $ S_{n+1} = \left\{ \begin{array}{lr} S_n+2 & with & probability & p\\ S_n - 1 & with & probability & 1-p \end{array} \...
2
votes
1answer
655 views

Finite State Markov Chain Stationary Distribution

How does one show that any finite-state time homogenous Markov Chain has at least one stationary distribution in the sense of $\pi = \pi Q$ where $Q$ is the transition matrix and $\pi$ is the ...
1
vote
1answer
1k views

What is the distribution of $Y = e^X$ when $X$ is normal?

What is the distribution of $Y = e^X$ when $X$ is normally distributed? Am I supposed to use characteristics function of normal random variable ?
1
vote
1answer
137 views

Questions on Kolmogorov Zero-One Law Proof in Rosenthal

Here is the proof of the Kolmogorov Zero-One Law and the lemmas used to prove it in Rosenthal's Probability book: Here are my questions: Question 1: In the first red box, does the fact that Q ...
1
vote
1answer
299 views

When random walk is upper unbounded

Consider a random walk $S_n = a_1+\dots+a_n$ where $a_n$ are iid random variables with $Ea_1 = a$ and $E|a_1|<\infty$. I am interested in the case when $\sup\limits_n S_n>M$ for all $M$ a.s. ...
1
vote
1answer
181 views

Borel-Cantelli-related exercise: Show that $\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} p_n < 1 \implies \prod_{n=1}^{\infty} (1-p_n) \geq 1- S$.

This is supposed to be related to the 2nd Borel-Cantelli Lemma (my justification for the independence tag). In Williams' Probability with Martingales, 2BCL is proven and then the following is given as ...
1
vote
1answer
151 views

Is it correct to say that $P(A) = 1 \to P(A|B) = 1$? $P(A) < 1 \to P(A|B) = P(A)$?

Is it correct to say that $P(A) = 1 \to P(A|B) = 1$? Precisely, consider a probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr{F}, \mathbb{P})$. Let $A \in \mathscr{F}$ and let $B_1, B_2, ... \in \mathscr{F}$ s.t. ...
0
votes
1answer
70 views

On “for all” in if and only if statements in probability theory and stochastic calculus

1 In my friend's Probability Theory long test there was this question: Let $(\Omega, \mathfrak{F}, P)$ be a probability space on which is defined all sub-$\sigma$-algebras, events and random ...
0
votes
1answer
89 views

Average number of terms required in a sum of exponential variables to reach a specific limit

I have a sum $Y=\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}(X_i-t)u(X_i-t)$ where all $X_i's$ are i.i.d exponentially distributed random variables with parameter $\lambda$ and $t$ is a constant. I want to know how many term ...