Use this tag only if your question is about the modern theoretical footing for probability, for example probability spaces, random variables, law of large numbers, and central limit theorems. Use [tag:probability] instead for specific problems and explicit computations. Use ...

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-1
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2answers
154 views

Do Kolmogorov's axioms really need only disjointness rather than pairwise disjointness?

According to 1 2, the third Kolmogorov axiom is for disjoint sets $(A_n)_{n \in \mathbb{N}}$ $P(\cup_n A_n) = \sum_n P(A_n)$ Is that really disjoint rather than pairwise disjoint? If we ...
-3
votes
1answer
268 views

Prove $S \doteq \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} p_n < \infty \to \prod_{n=1}^{\infty} (1-p_n) > 0$ assuming $0 \leq p_n < 1$. [duplicate]

Prove $S \doteq \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} p_n < \infty \to \prod_{n=1}^{\infty} (1-p_n) > 0$ assuming $0 \leq p_n < 1$. Hint: Show that $S < 1 \to \prod_{n=1}^{\infty} (1-p_n) \geq 1 - S$. ...
20
votes
2answers
2k views

What is the importance of the infinitesimal generator of Brownian motion?

I have read that the infinitesimal generator of Brownian motion is $\frac{1}{2}\small\triangle$. Unfortunately, I have no background in semigroup theory, and the expositions of semigroup theory I have ...
12
votes
2answers
2k views

How should I understand the $\sigma$-algebra in Kolmogorov's zero-one law?

I'm learning Kolmogorov's zero-one law in probability theory: Let $(Ω,{\mathcal F},P)$ be a probability space and let $F_n$ be a sequence of mutually independent $\sigma$-algebras contained in ...
14
votes
2answers
907 views

Existence of independent and identically distributed random variables.

I often see the sentence "let $X_1, X_2, \ldots$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with a certain distribution". But given a random variable $X$ on a probability space $\Omega$, how do I know ...
8
votes
3answers
1k views

What is the relation between weak convergence of measures and weak convergence from functional analysis

To keep things simple, we assume $X$ to be a polish space (think of $X$ as $\mathbb{R}^n$ for example). Let's denote with $P(X)$ the space of all Borel probability measure on $X$. We say ...
22
votes
1answer
1k views

How far can probability intransitivity be stretched?

Once upon a time I read about nontransitive dice - sets of dice where "is more likely to roll a higher number than" is not a transitive relation. After the surprise wore off, I wondered - just how far ...
11
votes
5answers
1k views

Probability of having zero determinant

Given a matrix $A_{n \times n}$, which has elements $a_{i,j} \sim \mathrm{unif} \left[a,b\right]$, what is the probablity of $\det(A)$ being zero? What if $a_{i,j}$ have any other distribution? ...
8
votes
3answers
361 views

Maximum of a sum of random variables

Let $X_1, \dots, X_n$ be independent and identically distributed random variables with $E(X_i) = 0$ and $$S_k = \sum_{i \leq k} X_i$$ What is the probability distribution of $M_2 = \max \{ X_1, ...
7
votes
2answers
3k views

Prove the time inversion formula is brownian motion

Let $B=(B_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a brownian motion. Show the time inversion formula $\hat{B}=(B_t)_t\geq0$ is a brownian motion, where for $t \geq 0$ we set $\hat{B}=0$ for $t=0$ and $\hat{B}=tB_{1/t}$ for ...
7
votes
1answer
739 views

For symmetric stable distributions, why is $\alpha \le 2$?

I'm preparing a lecture on stable distributions, and I'm trying to find a simple explanation of the following fact. Suppose we are trying to come up with stable distributions. From the definition, ...
5
votes
3answers
6k views

1D random walk-probability to go back to origin

Suppose There is a random walk starting in origin while probability to move right is 1/3 and probability to move left 2/3.What is the probability to return to the origin. Thank you
4
votes
3answers
6k views

Showing that Y has a uniform distribution if Y=F(X) where F is the cdf of X

Let X be a random variable with a continuous and strictly increasing c.d.f. function F (so that the quantile function F^−1 is well-defined). Define a new random variable Y by Y = F(X). Show that Y has a ...
10
votes
3answers
882 views

Finitely Additive not Countably Additive on $\Bbb N$

Does there exist a function defined on the power set of the natural numbers to the interval from $0$ to $1$, $p:2^{\Bbb N}\rightarrow [0,1]$, such that $p$ is finitely additive, i.e. ...
9
votes
3answers
2k views

What does the -log[P(X)] mean in the calculation of entropy?

The entropy (self information) of a discrete random variable X is calculated as: $$ H(x)=E(-log[P(X)]) $$ What does the -log[P(X)] mean? It seems to be something like ""the self information of each ...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

Does finite expectation imply bounded random variable?

In general if I have that \begin{equation} \mathbb{E}(X)<\infty \end{equation} does this imply that $|X|<\infty$ a.s? An attempted proof: Let $(\Omega,\mathbb{F},\mathbb{P})$ be a probability ...
3
votes
1answer
1k views

Uniform convergence and weak convergence

Assume $F_{n},F$ are distribution functions of r.v.$X_{n}$ and $X$, $F_{n}$ weakly converge to $F$. If $F$ is pointwise continuous in the interval $[a,b]\subset\mathbb{R}$, show that ...
2
votes
1answer
629 views

Borel-Cantelli lemma problem [duplicate]

Practice problem for exam: Let ${A_n}$ satisfy $\sum_{n=1}^\infty P(A_n \cap A^c_{n+1}) < \infty$ and $\lim_{n\to \infty} P(A_n) = 0$. Show that $P(\lim \sup A_n) = 0$. I can see that it is ...
13
votes
2answers
563 views

Why do we want probabilities to be *countably* additive?

In probability theory, it is (as far as I am aware) universal to equate "probability" with a probabilistic measure in the sense of measure theory (possibly a particularly well behaved measure, but ...
8
votes
2answers
2k views

Prokhorov metric vs. total variation norm

Let $(S,d)$ be a metric space and let $\mathcal P(S)$ denote the space of Borel probability measures on $S$ endowed with the Prokhorov metric $\pi:\mathcal P(S)\times \mathcal P(S)\to \mathbb R_+$ ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

Convergence in law and uniformly integrability

I'm looking for an elementary way of showing the following. If $(X_n)$ and $X$ are random variables such that $X_n \to X$ in distribution and such that $\{X_n\mid n\geq 1\}$ are uniformly integrable, ...
6
votes
2answers
145 views

Approximation of conditional expectation

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})$ be a complete probability space. Let $\mathcal{A}$ be a complete sub-$\sigma$-algebra of $\mathcal{F}$. For the moment assume that $X$ is a random variable with ...
6
votes
1answer
453 views

Right continuous version of a martingale

This is an exercise in chapter 2 of the book "Continuous Martingales and Brownian Motion" by Revuz and Yor: Consider the probability space $([0,1], \mathcal{B}([0,1]), dx)$, where $dx$ denotes ...
3
votes
3answers
1k views

Conditional mean on uncorrelated stochastic variable

I know that $E[X|Y]=E[X]$ if $X$ is independent of $Y$. I recently was made aware that it is true if only $\text{Cov}(X,Y)=0$. Would someone kindly either give a hint if it's easy, show me a reference ...
2
votes
1answer
226 views

Problems on expected value

I'm self studying probability theory and I'm stuck in the following problems 1) Prove the following for a random variable $X$ with cdf $F$ $$E(x)=\int_0^\infty (1-F(x)) dx - \int_\infty^0 F(x) dx$$ ...
8
votes
1answer
2k views

Is $p$-norm decreasing in $p$?

I could show that $\|\cdot\|_p$ is decreasing in $p$ for $p\in (0,\infty)$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$. Following are the details. Let $0<p<q$. We need to show that $\|x\|_p\ge \|x\|_q$, where $x\in ...
6
votes
1answer
2k views

Understanding the relationship of the $L^1$ norm to the total variation distance of probability measures, and the variance bound on it

I am trying to find a bound for variance of an arbitrary distribution $f_Y$ given a bound of a Kullback-Leiber divergence from a zero-mean Gaussian to $f_Y$, as I've explained in this related ...
5
votes
1answer
551 views

If X and Y are equal almost surely, then they have the same distribution, but the reverse direction is not correct

Show that if two random variables X and Y are equal almost surely, then they have the same distribution. Show that the reverse direction is not correct. If $2$ r.v are equal a.s. can we write ...
5
votes
3answers
1k views

A Good Book for Mathematical Probability Theory [duplicate]

I am from mathematical background, and I always hated the way they teach elementary probability theory in schools without giving any clue about measure theory. I want a theoretical book in ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

Combinations of characteristic functions: $\alpha\phi_1+(1-\alpha)\phi_2$

Suppose we are given two characteristic functions: $\phi_1,\phi_2$ and I want to take a weighted average of them as below: $\alpha\phi_1+(1-\alpha)\phi_2$ for any $\alpha\in [0,1]$ Can it be proven ...
4
votes
2answers
508 views

Prove that the maximum of $n$ independent standard normal random variables, is asymptotically equivalent to $\sqrt(2\log n)$ almost surely.

Lets $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ be an iid sequence of standard normal random variables. Define $$M_n=\max_{1\leq i\leq n} X_i.$$ Prove that $$\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty} \frac{M_n}{\sqrt{2\log ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

A criterion for independence based on Characteristic function

Let $X$ and $Y$ be real-valued random variables defined on the same space. Let's use $\phi_X$ to denote the characteristic function of $X$. If $\phi_{X+Y}=\phi_X\phi_Y$ then must $X$ and $Y$ be ...
4
votes
1answer
1k views

Weak convergences of measurable functions and of measures

My question is "how weak convergences of measurable functions is defined?" There seems to be two different definitions which are both based on weak convergence of measures generated by the measurable ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

application of strong vs weak law of large numbers

By definition, the weak law states that for a specified large $n$, the average is likely to be near $\mu$. Thus, it leaves open the possibility that $|\bar{X_n}-\mu| \gt \eta$ happens an infinite ...
3
votes
1answer
100 views

For a distribution function $F(x)$ and constant $a$, integral of $F(x + a) - F(x)$ is $a$.

For any distribution function and any $a \geq 0$, $\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} (F(x+a)-F(x))dx = a$. In this case, "distribution function" means a right continuous function F with $F(-\infty) = 0$, ...
3
votes
2answers
280 views

Let $X_1$ and $X_2$ are independent $N(0, \sigma^2)$ random variables. What is the distribution of $X_1^2 + X_2^2$?

Let $X_1$ and $X_2$ are independent $N(0, \sigma^2)$ which means (mean = 0, variance = $\sigma^2$) random variables. What is the distribution of $X_1^2 + X_2^2$? My approach is that $X_1\sim N(0, ...
3
votes
3answers
525 views

Different of mapsto and right arrow

Could someone please explain to me what is the difference in the two arrows$$\rightarrow$$ and $$\mapsto$$ For example in Probability wih Martingales (Willams) Thank you.
3
votes
1answer
153 views

Probability that a sequence of random variables converges to 0 or 1

Fix $\alpha , \beta > 0$ with $\alpha + \beta = 1$ and consider the sequence of random variables defined by $X_0 = \theta \in (0,1)$ and $$P(X_n = \alpha + \beta X_{n-1} \mid X_{n-1} , ... , X_0) ...
3
votes
1answer
242 views

How expected value is related to density function?

Let $X$ be a random variable on $(\Omega, \Sigma, P)$. The expected value of $X$ is defined as $$EX = \int X \,dP.$$ But when we calculate $EX$, we often use $$ EX = \int_{-\infty}^\infty xf(x) dx ...
2
votes
3answers
410 views

How to express $E[\max(x,y)]$ as an integral?

In Hull (2008, p. 307), the following equation is found (Eq. 13A.2): $$E[\max(V-K,0)]=\int_{K}^{\infty} (V-K)g(V)\:dV$$ Where $g(V)$ is the PDF of $V$ and $V,K>0$. I'd like to extrapolate from ...
2
votes
1answer
144 views

“Fair” game in Williams

In David Williams' Probability with Martingales, $\exists$ this exercise. What's fair about a fair game? Let $X_i$, i = 1, 2, ... be indp RVs s.t. $X_i = i^2 - 1$ with prob $1/i^2$ and $-1$ with ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

Is continuous L2 bounded local martingale a true martingale?

I can prove it briefly, but I found a "counter" example. (There must be a mistake in the following words...) I can prove: X is a continuous local martingale, with $X_0=0$ a.s, then X is $L_2$ bounded ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

Rule with independent random variables and conditional expectations

I want to use a rule for conditional expectation I found in (German) wikipedia, not in my script/textbook of probability theory, I guess it should be simple and follow more or less straight from the ...
1
vote
1answer
151 views

(Ito lemma proof): convergence of $\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}f(W(t_{i}))(W(t_{i+1})-W(t_{i}))^{2}.$

The purpose of this question is to complete my personal exposition on the rigorous proof of Ito's lemma. I have consulted more than half a dozen mathematical finance texts and not a single one, for ...
1
vote
1answer
1k views

Likelihood Function for the Uniform Density.

Let the random variable $X$ have a uniform density given by $$ f(x;\theta)=I_{[\theta-\frac{1}{2},\theta+\frac{1}{2}]} $$ where $-\infty\leq\theta\leq\infty $ the likelihood function for a sample of ...
0
votes
1answer
178 views

What kind of f(n)'s make the limsup statement is true? What kind don't?

What kind of $f(n): \mathbb{N} \to \mathbb{N}$'s make the ff statement true? What kind don't? $\limsup A_{f(n)} \subseteq \limsup A_n$ where $n \in \mathbb{N}$ (*) Well obviously the answers to ...
9
votes
1answer
428 views

Can you make money on coin tosses when the odds are against you?

The strategy Given an initial investment $n$ dollars and a "bet buffer" $b$. Calculate the bet size $x=\left\lfloor\frac{n}{2^b-1}\right\rfloor$ dollars. Wager $x$ dollars on random variable $C$ ...
6
votes
1answer
910 views

Finding an example of a discrete-time strict local martingale.

Find an example of a discrete-time local martingale that is not a true martingale. I was thinking hard for some time about this fun problem. I know that $\mathbb{E}[|M|_t]=\infty \text{ for some ...
6
votes
1answer
357 views

Feller continuity of the stochastic kernel

Given a metric space $X$ with a Borel sigma-algebra, the stochastic kernel $K(x,B)$ is such that $x\mapsto K(x,B)$ is a measurable function and a $B\mapsto K(x,B)$ is a probability measure on $X$ for ...
5
votes
1answer
725 views

When the sum of independent Markov chains is a Markov chain?

I try to find as much as possible cases, when the chain $Z(t) = |X_1(t)-X_2(t)|$ is Markov, where $X_1(t)$ and $X_2(t)$ are independent, discrete-time and space, preferably non-homogeneous Markov ...