Use this tag only if your question is about the modern theoretical footing for probability, for example probability spaces, random variables, law of large numbers, and central limit theorems. Use [tag:probability] instead for specific problems and explicit computations. Use ...

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1answer
249 views

Markov processes driven by the noise

Let $\xi_n\in \Xi$ be a sequence of iid random variables with $n \in\mathbb N\cup\{0\}$, which we call a noise process. Construct a process $$ Z_{n+1} = f(Z_n,\xi_n)\quad(\star) $$ with $Z_0\in E$ ...
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2answers
432 views

If X,Y and Z are independent, are X and YZ independent?

If yes: I know that f(X) and g(Y) are independent if X and Y are independent and f and g are "measurable".* If that is to be used, is g(Y) = YZ measurable? If not, how else to approach this? If ...
5
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1answer
494 views

Generalized Second Borel-Cantelli lemma

A generalized version of the second Borel-Cantelli lemma says Theorem 5.3.2. Second Borel-Cantelli lemma, II. Let $\mathcal F_n, n \ge 0$ be a filtration with $F_0 = \{\emptyset, \Omega\}$ and ...
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2answers
1k views

Conditional expectation for a sum of iid random variables: $E(\xi|\xi+\eta)=E(\eta|\xi+\eta)=\frac{\xi+\eta}{2}$

I don't really know how to start proving this question. Let $\xi$ and $\eta$ be independent, identically distributed random variables with $E(|\xi|)$ finite. Show that ...
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1answer
84 views

Choosing the correct subsequence of events s.t. sum of probabilities of events diverge

Here is the problem. I tried choosing $B_n = A_{mn}$ since it is an independent sequence for $m \geq 2$, but I am not quite sure how to guarantee that $\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} P(A_{mn}) = \infty$. Is ...
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4answers
421 views

How variance is defined?

The variance of a random variable $X$ is defined as $E[(x-\mu )^2]$. Why can't it be defined as $E[|x-\mu |]$. i.e., What is the basic idea behind this definition. Thank you.
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1answer
386 views

Probability of asymmetric random walk returning to the origin

Consider the random walk $S_n$ given by $ S_{n+1} = \left\{ \begin{array}{lr} S_n+2 & with & probability & p\\ S_n - 1 & with & probability & 1-p \end{array} ...
2
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1answer
494 views

Convergence of characteristic functions to $1$ on a neighborhood of $0$ and weak convergence

Prove the following statement: $ X_n \Rightarrow 0 $ (convergence in distribution) if and only if $ (\exists\; \epsilon>0: |t|<\epsilon) \;\; \phi_n(t) \rightarrow 1 $, where $\phi_n(t)$ is ...
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1answer
119 views

Prove $\mathbb{P}(\sup_{t \geq 0} M_t > x \mid \mathcal{F}_0)= 1 \wedge \frac{M_0}{x}$ for a martingale $(M_t)_{t \geq 0}$

Let $M$ be a positive, continuous martingale that converges a.s. to zero as $t$ tends to infinity. I now want to prove that for every $x>0$ $$ P\left( \sup_{t \geq 0 } M_t > x \mid \mathcal{F}_0 ...
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8answers
69k views

What is the best book to learn probability?

Question is quite straight... I'm not very good in this subject but need to understand at a good level.
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2answers
3k views

Beta function derivation

How do I derive the Beta function using the definition of the beta function as the normalizing constant of the Beta distribution and only common sense random experiments? I'm pretty sure this is ...
18
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1answer
4k views

Interpretation of sigma algebra

My question is how to interpret sigma algebra, especially in the context of probability theory (stochastic processes included). I would like to know if there is some clear and general way to interpret ...
35
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3answers
3k views

Why is this coin-flipping probability problem unsolved?

You play a game flipping a fair coin. You may stop after any trial, at which point you are paid in dollars the percentage of heads flipped. So if on the first trial you flip a head, you should stop ...
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2answers
526 views

A simple way to obtain $\prod_{p\in\mathbb{P}}\frac{1}{1-p^{-s}}=\sum_{n=1}^{\infty}\frac{1}{n^s}$

Let $ p_1 <p_2 <\cdots <p_k <\cdots $ the increasing list in set $\mathbb{P}$ of all prime numbers . By sum of infinite geometric series $\sum_{k=0}^\infty r^k = \frac{1}{1-r}$ for ...
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6answers
4k views

Best measure theoretic probability theory book?

I'm looking for a clear way to learn measure theoretic probability theory. Any suggestions?
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3answers
2k views

Random Variable Inequality

Doing a little reading over the break (The Probabilistic Method by Alon and Spencer); can't come up with the solution for this seemingly simple (and perhaps even a little surprising?) result: (A-S ...
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2answers
2k views

What is meant by a continuous-time white noise process?

What is meant by a continuous-time white noise process? In a discussion following a question a few months ago, I stated that as an engineer, I am used to thinking of a continuous-time ...
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1answer
19k views

Gamma Distribution out of sum of exponential random variables

I have a sequence $T_1,T_2,\ldots$ of independent exponential random variables with paramter $\lambda$. I take the sum $S=\sum_{i=1}^n T_i$ and now I would like to calculate the probability density ...
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2answers
2k views

Algebra of Random Variables?

I've been looking online (and in teaching journals) for a good introduction to Algebras of Random Variables (on an undergraduate level) and their usage, and have come up short. I know I can find the ...
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2answers
4k views

Meaning of non-existence of expectation?

When reading another post, I was wondering about the definition of existence of expectation of a random variable. From Kai Lai Chung, We say a random variable $X$ has a finite or infinite ...
13
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3answers
415 views

Limit of a Wiener integral

How to show that $$ \lim _{\alpha \rightarrow \infty } \sup_{t \in \left [0,T \right]} \left | e^{-\alpha t} \int _ 0 ^t e^{\alpha s} ~ dB_s \right | =0, \ \ \text{a.e.} $$ where $\left (B_s ...
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2answers
148 views

Why is it that $\mathscr{F} \ne 2^{\Omega}$?

From Williams' Probability with Martingales: 2.3. Examples of $(\Omega, \mathcal{F})$ pairs We leave the question of assigning probabilities until later. (a) Experiment: Toss coin twice. ...
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3answers
1k views

Is there a possibility to choose fairly from three items when every choice can only have 2 options

Me and my wife are often not knowing which DVD to watch. If we have two options we have a simple solution, I put one DVD in one hand behind my back and the other DVD in the other hand. She will ...
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2answers
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Measurability of one Random Variable with respect to Another

After several hours of struggling, I've been unable to solve the following problem Let $X,Y: (\Omega, \mathcal{S}) \rightarrow (\mathbb{R}, \mathcal{R})$ where $\mathcal{R}$ are the Borel Sets for ...
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1answer
240 views

Borel-Cantelli Lemma “Corollary” in Royden and Fitzpatrick

The Borel-Cantelli Lemma in Royden and Fitzpatrick's "Real Analysis" seems to be a sort of "corollary" of the non-probabilistic ones I see online. It says: "Let $(E_k)_{k=1}^{\infty}$ be a countable ...
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0answers
57 views

Compound Distribution — Log Normal Distribution with Log Normally Distributed Mean

Could someone please point me to a source or suggest ways in which we can obtain the Distribution, Density Functions, Expected Value, etc. of a Log Normal Distribution whose mean (actually, the mean ...
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1answer
2k views

Asymptotics of binomial coefficients and the entropy function

I found a question while I was trying to practice Combinatorics and Probabilistic methods.I tried to solve it with no success.. this is the question: Use the Stirling approximation of the ...
6
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1answer
611 views

Limit of sums of iid random variables which are not square-integrable

The Central Limit Theorem tells us that for an iid sequence of random variables $(X_n)_{n\geq 0}$ of finite variance $\sigma^2$ and zero mean $$\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{S_n}{\sqrt{n}}=^d ...
5
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2answers
18k views

Finding probability P(X<Y)

How can I find this probability $P(X<Y)$ ? knowing that X and Y are independent random variables.
3
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1answer
170 views

Asymptotics of $\max\limits_{1\leqslant k\leqslant n}X_k/n$

I found an assertion in this paper at the beginning of page 6, but i can't see how to justify it: Let $X_n \geq 0$ i.i.d. with finite expectation then: $$ \frac1n\max\limits_{k \leq n}X_k \to 0 ...
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1answer
138 views

Computing the expectation of conditional variance in 2 ways

Same as here. Let $X$ be a square integrable random variable on $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P)$. Let $\mathcal{G}$ be a sub-$\sigma$-algebra of $\mathcal{F}$. Define the conditional variance of $X$ given ...
2
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2answers
453 views

Distribution of sums

I'm really having a hard time with this topic in probability theory and I was wondering if someone has any tricks, tips or anything useful to help me understand it. In my notes I am told that ...
5
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3answers
585 views

Difference between Modification and Indistinguishable

Would someone be able to offer a layman's explanation of what is means when two stochastic processes are a Modification of each other and when they are Indistinguishable? My Stochastic Analysis notes ...
3
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2answers
168 views

Conditional Expectation of Functions of Random Variables satisfying certain Properties

Suppose that we have a probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, P)$. Let $X,Y$ be real-valued random variables defined on this space, and let $\mathcal{H} \subset \mathcal{F}$ be a sub-sigma-algebra. ...
2
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1answer
603 views

Prove that $f(X)$ and $g(Y)$ are independent if $X$ and $Y$ are independent [duplicate]

Let $X$ and $Y$ be independent random variables. Prove that $f(X)$ and $g(Y)$ are independent for any choice of measurable functions $f$ and $g$. This sounds very obvious, but I have no idea how ...
2
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1answer
4k views

Tower property of conditional expectation

I'm trying to prove the "tower property" of conditional expectations, $$ E[V\mid W] = E[\ E[V\mid U,W]\ \mid W\ ], $$ where $U$, $V$ and $W$ are any random variables. $E[X \mid Y]$ is itself a ...
2
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1answer
576 views

Alternative Expected Value Proof

I am currently tasked with proving an alternative definition of the expected value function. Considering X to be a random variable that takes all positive integers, I have to prove that ...
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2answers
313 views

Find the pdf of $\prod_{i=1}^n X_i$, where $X_is$ are independent uniform [0,1] random variables.

How do I find the pdf of $\prod_{i=1}^n X_i$, where $X_is$ are independent uniform [0,1] random variables. I know X~U[0,1], -ln(x) is exponential(1). I also know the sum of two or more independent ...
1
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1answer
276 views

When random walk is upper unbounded

Consider a random walk $S_n = a_1+\dots+a_n$ where $a_n$ are iid random variables with $Ea_1 = a$ and $E|a_1|<\infty$. I am interested in the case when $\sup\limits_n S_n>M$ for all $M$ a.s. ...
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1answer
50 views

Asymmetric Random Walk / Prove that $T:= \inf\{n: X_n = b\}$ is a $\{\mathscr F_n\}_{n \in \mathbb N}$-stopping time

Given random variables $Y_1, Y_2, ... \stackrel{iid}{\sim} P(Y_i = 1) = p = 1 - q = 1 - P(Y_i = -1)$ where $p > q$ in a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \{\mathscr F_n\}_{n \in ...
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1answer
200 views

Prove Z is a martingale by defining it is a product of random variables

Given a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathscr{F}, \{\mathscr{F_n}\}, \mathbb{P})$ where $\mathscr{F_n} = \mathscr{F_n}^{Z} \doteq \sigma(Z_0, Z_1, \ldots, Z_n)$, show that $Z = (Z_n)_{n \geq ...
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1answer
126 views

Mutual Independence Definition Clarification

Let $Y_1, Y_2, ..., Y_n$ be iid random variables and $B_1, B_2, ..., B_n$ be Borel sets. It follows that $P(\bigcap_{i=1}^{n} (Y_i \in B_i)) = \Pi_{i=1}^{n} P(Y_i \in B_i)$...I think? If so, does ...
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2answers
448 views

Convergence in probability and almost surely

Let $X_n$ be a sequence of independent random variable which converges in probability to $X$. Prove $X$ is a constant. Can someone give me a hint how I should go about proving this? I tried proving ...
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3answers
2k views

{Thinking}: Why equivalent percentage increase of A and decrease of B is not the same end result?

original post the examples here are, the most important word -- fundamentally -- the same. example1: the most abstract way to present this example. Why equivalent % increase of A in event1 and % ...
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1answer
118 views

Distribution in Polya's Urn / existence of mgf / Stolz–Cesàro alternative / dominated convergence theorem

I know this has been asked elsewhere, but I think the values or random variables are different or something. From Williams' Probability with Martingales: I proved that $M_n$ is a $\sigma(B_1, ...
1
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1answer
163 views

Borel-Cantelli-related exercise: Show that $\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} p_n < 1 \implies \prod_{n=1}^{\infty} (1-p_n) \geq 1- S$.

This is supposed to be related to the 2nd Borel-Cantelli Lemma (my justification for the independence tag). In Williams' Probability with Martingales, 2BCL is proven and then the following is given as ...
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0answers
96 views

optimization problem gaussian maximizes entropy

Let $X_1, X_2, Z_1$ be random variables and define $$Y=aX_1+bX_2+Z_1$$ I have the following optimization problem of difference of entropies, $$f=\max_{p(x_1x_2)} h(Y) - h(Y|X_2)= \max_{p(x_1,x_2)} ...
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2answers
147 views

Do Kolmogorov's axioms really need only disjointness rather than pairwise disjointness?

According to 1 2, the third Kolmogorov axiom is for disjoint sets $(A_n)_{n \in \mathbb{N}}$ $P(\cup_n A_n) = \sum_n P(A_n)$ Is that really disjoint rather than pairwise disjoint? If we ...
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2answers
221 views

Prove $S \doteq \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} p_n < \infty \to \prod_{n=1}^{\infty} (1-p_n) > 0$ assuming $0 \leq p_n < 1$. [duplicate]

Prove $S \doteq \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} p_n < \infty \to \prod_{n=1}^{\infty} (1-p_n) > 0$ assuming $0 \leq p_n < 1$. Hint: Show that $S < 1 \to \prod_{n=1}^{\infty} (1-p_n) \geq 1 - S$. ...
34
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4answers
1k views

Rain droplets falling on a table

Suppose you have a circular table of radius $R$. This table has been left outside, and it begins to rain at a constant rate of one droplet per second. The drops, which can be considered points as they ...