-1
votes
1answer
8 views

poisson distributionnnn

Suppose the number of spelling error on any given page in particular book can be modeled by a Poisson distribution with $\lambda=2$, and assume that the number of errors on different pages is ...
0
votes
0answers
29 views

Choosing random marbles until one is divisible by $X$ [on hold]

A box contains twelve marbles on which they are numbered by $1,2,3,...,12$. Now let $X$ represent the number of marbles you must choose with replacement until you obtain one with a number that is ...
0
votes
0answers
23 views

What is the optimal prize for a prize ticket in a raffle [on hold]

What, if any is the optimal price for a prize ticket given the value of a prize? For example if you were to raffle a TV and wanted to cover the cost of the prize? Let say the people were aware of how ...
0
votes
0answers
24 views

Kelly criterion for 3 outcomes

I have been exploring the Kelly criterion for optimizing the bet size for a two outcome bet situation. I'm having trouble applying this to a three outcome bet. I may refer to this excellent thread: ...
2
votes
1answer
52 views

Sum of normally distributed independent random variables, where one has a different (exponential) unit

$$X \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu_X,\,\sigma_X^2)$$ $$Y \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu_Y,\,\sigma_Y^2)$$ $\mu_X$ and $\sigma_X$ have unit decibel watt ($\text{dBW}$); $\mu_Y$ and $\sigma_Y$ have unit watt ($\text{W}$). ...
2
votes
1answer
36 views

A question about Malliavin calculus

An application of Malliavin calculus is to calculate the sensitivity of financial Greeks. However, as in the theory of Malliavin calculus, to take the derivative of a random variable, we need to ...
0
votes
1answer
22 views

Polynomial joint pdf $f(x,y)$ such that of $f(x) \neq f(y)$

How can I build a polynomial joint pdf $f(x,y)$ for $x \in [x_1, x_2]$ and $y \in [y_1, y_2]$ such that of $f(x) \neq f(y)$ or equivalently, $x$ and $y$ are depended on each other?
4
votes
4answers
121 views

What is the difference between $E[X\mid Y]$ vs $E[X\mid Y=y]$ and some of the properties of $E[X \mid Y]$?

I was trying to understand both intuitively and rigorously what the difference between $E[X\mid Y]$ vs $E[X\mid Y=y]$. Let me tell you first the things that do make sense to me. $E[X\mid Y=y]$ makes ...
0
votes
1answer
34 views

Show that $Pr[X \gg Y]\approx 1$

Can one show (and how) that $$Pr[X \gg Y]\approx 1$$ for $$X:=\sum_{i=1}^k Bin\left(n\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^i,i\right)$$ and $$Y:=\sum_{i=k+1}^{\infty} ...
0
votes
0answers
36 views

Prove $Pr[X + Y \geq x] \sim Pr[X \geq x]$

We have two independent random variables $X$ and $Y$, where $X=\sum_{i} X_i$ and $Y=\sum_j Y_j$, where $X_i$,$Y_j$ are (non-identically) Bernoulli distributed and independent. Under the assumption ...
1
vote
2answers
84 views

What is the probability of going bankrupt in roulette?

Imagine that the bank has the money $M_1$ and the player has the money $M_2$. The rules are the following: You win with a chance of $\frac{17}{36}$ and lose with $\frac{19}{36}$ each round. Now you ...
1
vote
0answers
29 views

On an existence of a real-valued measurable function on a non-atomic probability measure space [duplicate]

Suppose that $(X,E,μ)$ is a non-atomic probability measure space. Let $\xi :X \to \mathbb{R}$ be a random variable. A Borel measure $\mu_{\xi}$ in $\mathbb{R}$ defined by ...
1
vote
0answers
36 views

Joint probability of 3 random variables when their pairwise difference is given

Consider 3 discrete random variables $X_1,X_2,X_3$ defined over $\{0..T\}$, which are identically and uniformly distributed.They are correlated in the sense that their pairwise difference has a unique ...
2
votes
2answers
40 views

Probability that exactly 2 of 3 objects are in 1 of 3 baskets with sizes 5, 8, 2

I want to calculate the probability that some mutation occurs on a certain DNA section by a given number mutations. I rephrased it into this problem: Three (identical) persons enter a train (section ...
1
vote
2answers
70 views

Partial sum of binomial

I 'm trying to figure out a closed form solution for the following summation: $\sum_{j=0}^{\omega} j{n \choose j}p^{j}(1-p)^{n-j}$ where $\omega < n$ Is there any closed form solution?
0
votes
0answers
37 views

Special case of Kullback-Leibler additivity

I have three random variables $X,Y,Z$. If $(X,Z)$ are an independent pair and $(Y,Z)$ are an independent pair, then the additive property of the Kullback-Leibler divergence says $K(X,Z|Y,Z) = K(X|Y) ...
2
votes
1answer
39 views

Expected Payment under limited policy

The unlimited severity distribution for claim amounts under an auto liability insurance policy is given by the cumulative distribution: $$ F(x) = 1 - 0.8e^{-0.02x}-0.2e^{-0.001x} , x \geq 0$$ ...
0
votes
1answer
34 views

Question about exp. distribution

We know that $X\sim \exp(1),Y\sim \exp(2)$ and they are independent. What is $P(Y>X)$? exp=Exponential... Thank you!
0
votes
1answer
25 views

Need help with P(D) in a Bayesian model

So I've been reading about Bayesian models so I tried I'd have a toy example I could play with. Consider the following: You are at a bus stop and you observe the bus arriving at various times $t_1, ...
1
vote
2answers
27 views

What is Cumulative Binomial probabilities?

I am new to this so don't know if I am asking the right question as I just read about its usage but didn't know what exactly a Cumulative Binomial probability is. So my question is, What is ...
0
votes
2answers
280 views

Two groups A and B are playing a game…

Two groups A and B are playing a game. The first group that wins 3 times is the winner. The probability that group A will win at on game is $\frac12$ and the same thing for group B. $X$ = The number ...
0
votes
0answers
42 views

Is the following probability distribution stationary/constant

For a conservative system, we know that angular momentum, $l$, and total energy, $E$, are constant, i.e. $\dot{l}=\frac{dl}{dt} = 0$ and $\dot{E}=\frac{dE}{dt} = 0$, where $t$ indicates time. Let ...
1
vote
1answer
39 views

Find Limiting Distribution of $|X_n|$

Let $Z_1,Z_2,...,Z_n,...$ be a sequence of independent standard normal random variables. Let $X_n=\sum^n_{k=1}\frac{Z_k}{\sqrt{k}}$. Does the limiting distribution of $|X_n|$ exists? If yes, find it; ...
-1
votes
2answers
29 views

We are making a Bernoulli experiment…

We are making series of independent Bernoulli experiment with $\frac13$ chance to success. What is the probability that we got success at the first experiment, if we know that we get two successes at ...
0
votes
0answers
27 views

Uniform Integrability of a RVs sequence [closed]

Where can I find information and some theorems about different properties of uniform integrability, except the common ones which appear on Wikipedia? I wish to find theorems regarding all sorts of ...
0
votes
3answers
277 views

What is the probability that A will win…

Two players are rolling two dices, if they get 6 Player A wins, if they get 7, player B wins, else they rolling the two dices again... What is the probability that A will win? I'd like to get any ...
0
votes
1answer
32 views

Method of moments for Beta $(\alpha_1,\alpha_2)$ distribution

I am trying to solve for the first two moments of a Beta$(\alpha_1,\alpha_2)$ distribution. We know that the first moment is equal to: $\mu_1 = \frac{\alpha_1}{\alpha_1+\alpha_2}$ and the second ...
3
votes
1answer
50 views

Prove Number of Arrivals $N(s)$ up to time $s$ follows $\mathrm{Poisson}(\lambda s)$ Distribution

This comes from my self-study of Durrett's "Essentials of Stochastic Processes" book, page 97. Definition Let $\tau_1,\tau_2,\ldots$ be independent $\mathrm{exponential}(\lambda)$ random variables. ...
1
vote
2answers
32 views

Need help understanding the difference between a.s. convergence and convergence in probability.

I have problem understanding the difference when I look at the alternative definition of a.s. convergence. I know how it is defined originally, but it is the alternative definition which makes it ...
2
votes
1answer
90 views
+50

Deducing an optimal gambling strategy (using martingales).

Apologies in advance for the length, I tried being precise. Suppose a game where in each turn you can gamble a certain amount of money on the result of a fair coin toss. If the coin comes out tails ...
-1
votes
1answer
22 views

Asymoptotic distribution of identically distributed random variables [closed]

$Y_1, Y_2, ..., Y_N$ are independent and identically distributed random variables with the distribution function $F := F_{Y_1}$ and $F'_n(y) = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\mathbf{1}_{\{Y_i \leq x\}}$ as ...
2
votes
0answers
54 views

How is conditional probability being used here?

Because of conditional probability: $P(A\mid B)=P(A,B)/P(B)$, $$P(C(t)\in dt\mid x(T^+_{i-1}),x(T^-_{i}))=\dfrac{P(C(t)\in dt,x(T^-_{i})\in dx\mid x(T^+_{i-1}))}{P(x(T^-_{i})\in dx\mid ...
0
votes
1answer
67 views

What will be probability of this problem? [closed]

given a string S. It is N characters long and consists of only 1s and 0s. Now Given an integer K, we have to pick two indices i and j at random between 1 and N, both inclusive. What's the probability ...
2
votes
1answer
46 views

I need help understanding this proof about convergence in distribution

The proof says that we used the fact that $(1-\epsilon)^\frac{x}{\epsilon} \rightarrow e^{-x}$ Why is this so? How do I prove this? Also, why do we need the fact that $\lfloor x/p_n \rfloor - ...
0
votes
0answers
25 views

differential equation with random coefficient

I am confused with a problem I encountered at hand, not on how to work on it but rather understanding the problem itself: Let $A(x;\omega)$ be a random field taking values in $[a,b]$ where $a,b < ...
3
votes
1answer
47 views

Upper Bound on Mutual Information

I am interested in an upper bound on mutual information that I have been encountering frequently in the statistics and probability literature. I have yet to see the "purest" form of the inequality, so ...
0
votes
0answers
12 views

Error of a Serial Processs

Give random variable X and two processes A, B . Assume that $ Y_{1}, Y_{2}$ are estimated versions of X by using processes A, B respectively, with probability: $P\left \{ \left | X-Y_{1} \right ...
4
votes
2answers
84 views

Easy way to compute $Pr[\sum_{i=1}^t X_i \geq z]$

We have a set of $t$ independent random variables $X_i \sim \mathrm{Bin}(n_i, p_i)$. We know that $$\mathrm{Pr}[X_i \geq z] = \sum_{j=z}^{\infty} { n_i \choose j } p_i^j (1-p_i)^{n_i -j}.$$ But is ...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

When do almost all random variables attain the expectation?

Given some sample space $\Omega$ I choose uniformly at random some $X \in \Omega$. Assume that I know the expected value $\mathbb{E}(X)$. What are the further conditions I need if I want to talk ...
1
vote
1answer
36 views

measure of dependence for copula

I have some question about the paper of Schweizer and Wolff (1981). The question concerns about the following bound $$\int_0^1\int_0^1|C(u,v)-uv|\,du\,dv\leq\frac{1}{12}$$ where $C$ is any copula. ...
1
vote
0answers
35 views

Intuition in probability theory

Good afternoon. Could you please suggest me some books or may be articles where I can read about the intuition of Kolmogorov's axiomatics. I know it, I can solve university problems but I can't feel ...
0
votes
0answers
15 views
1
vote
1answer
27 views

derivation law from the call option formula

i am reading a article about the option pricing. and i got stuck with some typical statement. $C(K)=\int (x-K)^+\mu(dx)$ is given. here, $\mu$ is implied law of asset price and C(K) is the price ...
2
votes
0answers
22 views

$X$ and $Y$ are i.i.d random variables with finite second moments. $X+Y$ and $X-Y$ are independent, show that $X$ is Gaussian.

$X$ and $Y$ are i.i.d random variables with finite second moments. $X+Y$ and $X-Y$ are independent, show that $X$ is Gaussian. Without loss of generality we may assume that $X$ and $Y$ are ...
2
votes
3answers
47 views

Independence of $X$ and $2X$

Are these two random variables independent? Unfortunately, I don't know probability theory enough to answer this question. I know for a fact that if $X$ and $Y$ are independent random variables and ...
3
votes
1answer
70 views

[Probability]need help to understand the following expression

So assume $Y$ and $X$ are exponentially distributed with parameters $y_1$, and $x_1$ respecitively. assume c is a constant. I am having huge trouble to understand the integration of the following ...
0
votes
0answers
24 views

Number of trials for two successes

Let Y denote the number of successes required for two successes in a series of Bernoulli trials with parameters p and q. I want to know whether $P[Y=n]=\binom{n}{2}p^2q^{n-2}$ or ...
0
votes
0answers
18 views

Kullback-Leibler or Jensen-Shannon divergence between two distributions.

i would like to understand well what Kullback-Leibler or Jensen-Shannon divergence between two distributions will tels us about two distribution,for instance let us consider following code ...
-1
votes
1answer
63 views

Convergence in Probability (weak law of large numbers) [closed]

Suppose $X_1, X_2, \dots, X_n$ are i.i.d. standard normal random variables. Prove that $$\frac{X_1X_2 + X_2X_3 + X_3X_4 + \cdots + X_{n−1}X_n}{n}$$ converges in probability to 0. I started this by ...
0
votes
2answers
24 views

Reliability Probability problem

What is the Probability that at least one close path is formed from A to B where each switch has a Probability of close = p and each switch acts independent of the other Proposed Solution Let ...