Questions on Monte Carlo methods, methods that require the repeated generation of (pseudo-, quasi-)random numbers for computing their results.

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1answer
96 views

Logic Question Regarding Sample Number and Time Increase

So this question is one of those "I'd rather ask and look stupid now than never know" types of questions. It goes as follows: The error in a Monte Carlo estimate is dominated by ...
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1answer
374 views

Combining two triangular distributions to yield one distribution

I am interested in using some Monte Carlo methods to help with an estimation problem I have. I need to allow multiple estimators to estimate line-items giving a best, average and worst case estimate ...
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1answer
50 views

Double Integrals & Expected Value Monte Carlo Method

Tell me if I'm wrong Let $\Omega = [a,b]\times[c,d]\subseteq\mathbb{R}^2$, then $$ \iint_\Omega ...
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1answer
20 views

Evaluating double integrals using monte carlo methods in matlab.

I used the monte carlo method to integrate $\int_{0}^{1}x^2dx$ in matlab. My matlab code was simply the following: A=1; N=10000; s=0; for i=1:N x=rand; y=rand; if y<= x^2; ...
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2answers
27 views

Let Y be a random variable with $0\le Y\le 1.$ [duplicate]

Let Y be a random variable with $$0\le Y\le 1.$$Show that $$var(Y)\le 1/4 $$ and that $$var(Y)= 1/4 $$ if and only if P(0)=1/2=P(1).
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1answer
64 views

How to mathematically prove that we are sampling from same distributions?

The content of this question is about rigorously proving something which is otherwise considered easily correct intuitively. Let's assume we have a multivariate distribution $g(x_1,x_2,...,x_n)$ over ...
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1answer
32 views

Determining Errors in Monte Carlo Simulation

I was wondering if anyone could throw light on possible errors associated with Monte Carlo sampling. I seem to be getting values that are slightly different each time despite running my model for ...
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1answer
60 views

Monte Carlo method error in Bernoulli random variables

Assume I am flipping an unfair coin. Flipping the coin will be heads with probability $p$ and tails with $1-p$. I have no idea what $p$ is (it could even be $.5$!) Let's say I decide to use the Monte ...
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1answer
56 views

Monte Carlo estimator

I have hopefully a short/simple question regarding monte carlo estimators. The expected value of a function of a random variable can be defined as: $$E[f(x)] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} f(x) p(x) dx$$ ...
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1answer
131 views

Alternatives to Monte-Carlo simulation

Imagine I have a model of economy of a region, which consists of several companies, importers and population. Let's assume that all local companies in question produce food and agricultural ...
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1answer
41 views

Confusion about Monte Carlo integration

I find I can not really understand the Monte Carlo integration, even I use it for many applications, like stochastic ray tracing. Let us take circle-area-calculation for an example, First, we think ...
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1answer
112 views

Monte Carlo integration, expected value of the sample mean and expected value of f(x)

I am still progressing in my learning of probability and monte carlo method. I understand a basic MC estimator can be written as: $$\bar x = { 1 \over N } \sum_{i=1}^N f(x_i) \approx E[f(x)]$$ I ...
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1answer
108 views

Monte Carlo sampling a binomial expansion

I want to figure out the following question $$ 1 = (10 - 9)^{100} = 10^{100}-100 \times 10^{99} \ 9 + \frac{100 \times 99}{2} 10^{98} \ 9^{2} - \frac{100 \times 99 \times 98 }{3}10^{97} 9^{3} ...
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1answer
35 views

Why cannot the Markov Chains used in MCMC simulations be null recurrent?

I am aware this question borderlines retardedness, but I am seeking an accurate explanation. I understand in null-recurrent cases, the expected amount of time to explore states can be infinite. Is ...
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2answers
375 views

How to decide what is the probability distribution in a Monte-Carlo simulation?

For a Monte-Carlo integration of $$\int_\Omega P(x)f(x)\ \text d x,$$ there seems to be no apriori distinction if $f$ or $P$ is the probability function. So does it matter if I consider $$P, f, P ...
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2answers
101 views

Finding a distribution of a random variable generated using a Monte Carlo method

I would greatly appreciate if somebody could confirm or negate my result to the following problem. I am especially not sure about "putting it all together" step. Generate $U_1,U_2,U_3 \sim ...
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0answers
7 views

Metropolis Monte Carlo with modified acceptance

What happens, if I change the acceptance criterion in a Metropolis Monte Carlo algorithm? I do know the classic proof of detailed balance, which for symmetric transition matrices gives a set of ...
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0answers
11 views

Simultaneous multiple perturbations in Markov chain Monte Carlo

I'm coding a McMC algorithm for geophysical applications. Using the Metropolis-Hastings scheme to accept/reject the proposed models is smth that i thought i completely understood, but i don't. To be ...
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0answers
14 views

Correlating random numbers seems to skew the data

I am trying to generate a series of correlated random numbers that represent currency exchange rates for a Monte-Carlo simulation. I am attempting to do this via a Cholesky decomposition of the ...
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1answer
30 views

Forecasting future revenue and expensces

I am trying to forecast future revenue and expenses in a company. In the past I used moving average method but later I am more inclined to try to do that by using monte carlo simulation. I am ...
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1answer
16 views

Monte Carlo Methods for non-orthogonal functions

I'm trying to approximate a function using a set of piecewise polynomials. For example, perhaps I'd like to uniformly split the domain [-1,+1] 20 times and place Wendland RBF, Gaussian, or maybe a ...
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0answers
17 views

Showing that the variance increases with the dimension of the random vector

This is actually related to a more complex question; but I want to re-ask it by trying to simplifying it as possible: 1- We have $n$ dimensional functions of the form $f_n:\mathbb{R}^{n} \mapsto ...
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21 views

Uniform convergence of Monte Carlo approximation

Usually Monte Carlo method is used to compute integration. For example, let $g(x,\theta)$ be a continuous function about $x$ and $\theta$, $f(x \mid \theta)$ is a continuous pdf with parameter ...
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18 views

How to show that the variance increases with the dimension $n$?

This can be seen as a statistics related question, but it is actually a more general mathematics related one. I am trying to understand the Particle Filter and the motivation to use it over the ...
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14 views

Monte carlo error: Combining “experimental” and statistical errors

I'm doing a slightly involved Monte Carlo approximation of a quantity $E$ where I end up with the following formula: $E=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^np_ie_iG_i}{\sum_{i=1}^np_iG_i}\ .\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ $ (1) ...
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1answer
28 views

Calculate expectation under risk neutral measure: $\mathbb{E_Q}(\max(S-1,0))$

I am busy with a numerical simulation and I want the calculate the following expectation under the risk neutral measure: $\mathbb{E_Q}(\max(S-1,0))$. $S$ is some variable that I calculated using ...
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0answers
20 views

Monte carlo formula to compute the approximation of variance of MLE

In the book of "Monte Carlo Statistical Methods", the book gives an approximation formula for the variance of MLE, Later on, the book mentions that this approximation formula can be written as ...
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9 views

control variates - estimating definite integrals

What are the good techniques to find $g(x)$ so that $f (x) - g(x)$ is minimal, in order to evaluate $\int_a^b [(f(x) - g(x)) + g(x)]dx$?
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1answer
31 views

Analytic approach to find probability and total value of a set of independent events

I have a forecasting worksheet which describes a set (worksheet) of independent events, all of which have a likelihood of happening given as a probability (e.g. 0.7). Every event also has a yield ...
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1answer
69 views

Sample uniform direction within cone

My question is pretty much the same as this question below, however I came up with a potential solution to this problem that I didn't see an answer to in the other question and I was wondering if it ...
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0answers
21 views

Antithetic pair of non-independent normal random variables

Suppose that I have two non-independent normal random variables, X and Y such that $(X,Y)$ has mean 0 and the following variance covariance matrix: \begin{bmatrix} 1 & \rho ...
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25 views

Understanding graph obtained from Monte-Carlo simulations

I am running a Monte Carlo Simulation where I sample from about 65 Normal Distributions. I also keep track of the probability associated with each sample by approximating a thin area in the Normal ...
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21 views

low discrepancy of halton sequences

I want to proof, that the Halton sequence is low discrepancy. I have to show that $$D_N^*(\mathcal{S})\le C\frac{\ln(N)^s}{N}$$ where $D_N^*$ ist the star discrepancy, $\mathcal{S}$ is the Halton ...
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1answer
95 views

Obtaining useful information from graph obtained via Monte-Carlo Simulations

I've been running Monte Carlo Simulations on some Matlab code and then plot the graph shown below. I was just wondering what useful information I could collect from this graph? Edit: fit ...
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30 views

Average over all positive functions on the unit interval whose Lebesgue integral is one

I want to average over all positive functions on the unit interval whose Lebesgue integral is one. Formally, I want to compute the mean of the following probability distribution defined over function ...
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44 views

Monte-Carlo calculation of a pdf

I need to evaluate the two first moments of pdf using mcmc methods. I'm already familiar with Metropolis algorithms in simulating statistical physics problems but I never had to approach a conditional ...
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0answers
24 views

Weak convergence of discretization scheme with correction

In this article on the Multilevel Monte Carlo method on page 8, http://people.maths.ox.ac.uk/gilesm/files/mcqmc06.pdf, Giles uses a correction term to improve the weak convergence rate of the lookback ...
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0answers
18 views

Logit Nomal Prior Distribution

$$\mu \sim N(\mu_0,\sigma_0)$$ $$ X_i \sim LN(\mu,\sigma_x)$$ Does anyone know any method for finding the posterior distribution $P(\mu|X)$ or at least any idea of how to estimate it numerically. I ...
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16 views

Inner product of Gaussians times another multivariate Gaussian derivation help

Assume that: $$p(R|U,V,\alpha) \sim \prod N(R_{ij}|U_i^{T}V_j,\alpha^{-1})$$ $$p(U|\mu_u,\Sigma_u) \sim N(U_{i}|\mu_u,\Sigma_u)$$ $$p(V|\mu_v,\Sigma_v) \sim N(V_{i}|\mu_v,\Sigma_v)$$ Here $R$ is an ...
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0answers
48 views

Monte Carlo Integration

I was reading this document (I will reproduce the equation): ...
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29 views

Calculating a weighted mean / product of likelihoods from samples only

Suppose for argument's sake I have two distributions of arbitrary form (P(A) and P(B)), but they have well-defined first and second moments. Calculating the weighted mean of these two distributions ...
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17 views

Monte Carlo by point or by interval

Say I compute monte carlo output from input scenarios. Input are discrete time series. I choose time series as an example to make the problem more obvious - this could be also any curve. Computation ...
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1answer
118 views

Markov Chain Monte Carlo in plain English

I barely know what a markov chain is (I had a terrible teacher) and I probably have an idea of what a stationary distribution is... but I don't know how a Monte Carlo method works and I don't know how ...
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0answers
83 views

Monte Carlo Simulation

If we have a random variable such that $$ H=B_1G_2\min(1,G_1)+B_2\frac{\min(2,G_1 G_2+G_2)}{n-B_1-B_2}, $$ where $n$ is constant, $G_1$ and $G_2$ are independent lognormal with different parameters, ...
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1answer
46 views

expected value involving probability of inequality random variables.

I have a question, not sure if this can be solved by calculation or Monte Carlo method For random variable G2+G2*min(2/G2-1,G1) where G1, G2 are indenpendt, G1~Lognormal(mu1,cigma1) ...
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1answer
124 views

Conditional probability of the sum of r.v.

I have $n$ independent random variables $X_i$ with known PDF and CDF (say, Normal, but not necessarily with the same parameters). Given $U_1, U_2 \subseteq \{1,...,n\} $ such that $U_1 \cup U_2 = ...
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35 views

Monte Carlo Technique and Convergence

I am solving $I = \int_{0}^{1}f(x)dx$ by Monte Carlo, e.g $I = E[f(U)]$ where $U\sim unif([0,1])$ so have $I = E[f(U)]\approx \hat I_M\colon= \frac{1}{M}\sum_{m=1}^Mf(u_m)$ I am interested in how ...
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1answer
58 views

Question on Joint Posterior

Likelihood: $f(x^T, n^T|\theta^T) = \prod_{i=1}^{30} \binom{n^T_i}{x^T_i}{\theta^T}^{x^T_i}{(1-\theta^T)}^{n^T_i-x^T_i}$ Prior: $ log(\frac{\theta^T}{1-\theta^T})\sim N(\mu_T,\sigma_T^2) $ I am ...
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1answer
94 views

Metropolis Hastings definition - Proving $\pi(x)$ is the invariant density of our transition matrix

I'm currently working through the proof of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, and using two sources: page 328, section 3 page 1704-1705 I have a good understanding of most of the proof until ...
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1answer
98 views

Efficient method of approximating a distribution with Gaussian

Given a univariate uni-modal density function $f(x)$ (very hard to compute its cumulative distribution function (CDF) $F(x)$, not to mention its inverse CDF $F^{-1}(x)$), how to find the best ...