Questions on Monte Carlo methods, methods that require the repeated generation of (pseudo-, quasi-)random numbers for computing their results.

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92 views

Monte-Carlo for SDE with square root diffusion term

I've recently got a question from a Master student about a numerical simulation/integration of the SDE of the following shape $$ \mathrm dX_i(t) = \left(\sum_{j=1}^M \nu_{ji} a_jX_j(t)\right)\mathrm ...
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44 views

Simulating of GBM

I have a question regarding the simulation of a GBM. I have found similar questions here but nothing which takes reference to my specific problem: Given a GBM of the form $dS(t) = \mu S(t) dt + ...
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140 views

Volume with MonteCarlo

I'm asked to find the volume of a given bounded solid in $\mathbb{R}^3$ by MonteCarlo means: since it is contained in a prism, I generate random points in the prism and see what proportion of them lie ...
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105 views

Approximation of SDE

I have been struggling with the following problem: If you want to find a numerical result by simulating the paths of a stochastic differential equation, in particular a geometric brownian motion I ...
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225 views

Computing Margin-of-Error using Monte Carlo simulations

I am interested in computing the margin-of-error for a metric computed on a random sample. The underlying distribution (finite) from which the random sampling is done is not normal (its extremely ...
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112 views

Three ideas of perfect sampling

From David J.C. MacKay's Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms 32.2 Exact sampling concepts Propp and Wilson's exact sampling method (also known as "perfect simulation" or ...
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46 views

How to sample the walk which visits each vertex of a graph specific number of times?

Is there any MCMC mathod that allow me to uniformly sample from all feasible walks where the following restrictions apply: ...
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59 views

Gibbs Sampling versus General Cases

Suppose we are given a prior distribution about an unknown parameter $\pi(\theta)$. Also we are given $f(x_{1}, \dots, x_n|\theta)$. We want to find $\pi(\theta|x_1, \dots, x_n)$. Now ...
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162 views

Markov Chains - Using Gibbs & Metropolis algorithm.

Suppose $f_x,_y$ is bivariate normal distribution. I was given the parameters $(μ_1, μ_2, σ_1^2, σ_2^2)$ and $ρ=0.95$ the correlation coefficient. I want to generate $(x_1,y_1), ...
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41 views

Integrating with respect to an MCMC Kernel

I'm currently trying to evaluate an integral with respect to an MCMC kernel, and I wanted someone else to read what I `proved' to see if it's really correct. It just doesn't feel right. Suppose I ...
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1answer
200 views

Will I have learned the prerequisites for self learning stochastic calculus and monte carlo method?

I'm an undergraduate econ major, and my main focus is in actuarial sciences, which as you may or may not know it's pretty mathematical. Some of the topics I will have to learn at some point on my own ...
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1answer
324 views

Why are random numbers necessary for a Monte Carlo simulation?

This may be somewhat of a question with an obvious answer, but I can not seem to understand the necessity of "truly" random numbers to make a Monte Carlo simulation a good one. I understand that not ...
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1answer
21 views

Random sampling using Metropolis vs. Accept-Reject

I'm working on a project comparing the accept-reject (von Neumann) and Metropolis methods of sampling. I'm generating a sample of size $N$ from a normal distribution $N(1,(\frac{1}{2})^2)$. What I ...
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2answers
45 views

Numerical estimation of simple integral

Considering the problem of numerical evaluation of the integral of a 'good' function $f(x)$ over a unit interval $I = \int_0^1f(x)dx$ Why can we say $I = E[f(U)]$, where $U\sim Uniformly[0, 1]$?
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68 views

How to use Monte Carlo method to find volume?

So the question asks to use the Monte Carlo method to find the volume of an irregular figure defined as: ...
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2answers
108 views

Are irreducible, positiv-definite Markov chains aperiodic?

If $M$ is the transition matrix of a discrete Markov chain, and $M$ is both irreducible, symmetric and positiv-definite, is the resulting Markov chain necessarily aperiodic? In my intuition, ...
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1answer
38 views

Determining Errors in Monte Carlo Simulation

I was wondering if anyone could throw light on possible errors associated with Monte Carlo sampling. I seem to be getting values that are slightly different each time despite running my model for ...
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2answers
449 views

How to recognize ellipse/ellipsoid from random points? UN-weighted average?

Suppose we are getting random points in 2D (or 3D) which tend to be on ellipse (or ellipsoid). We can't guarantee points are uniformly distributed over ellipse (ellipsoid surface). The task is to ...
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1answer
98 views

Logic Question Regarding Sample Number and Time Increase

So this question is one of those "I'd rather ask and look stupid now than never know" types of questions. It goes as follows: The error in a Monte Carlo estimate is dominated by ...
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1answer
431 views

Combining two triangular distributions to yield one distribution

I am interested in using some Monte Carlo methods to help with an estimation problem I have. I need to allow multiple estimators to estimate line-items giving a best, average and worst case estimate ...
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1answer
132 views

Double Integrals & Expected Value Monte Carlo Method

Tell me if I'm wrong Let $\Omega = [a,b]\times[c,d]\subseteq\mathbb{R}^2$, then $$ \iint_\Omega ...
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1answer
479 views

Evaluating double integrals using monte carlo methods in matlab.

I used the monte carlo method to integrate $\int_{0}^{1}x^2dx$ in matlab. My matlab code was simply the following: A=1; N=10000; s=0; for i=1:N x=rand; y=rand; if y<= x^2; ...
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2answers
28 views

Let Y be a random variable with $0\le Y\le 1.$ [duplicate]

Let Y be a random variable with $$0\le Y\le 1.$$Show that $$var(Y)\le 1/4 $$ and that $$var(Y)= 1/4 $$ if and only if P(0)=1/2=P(1).
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1answer
83 views

How to mathematically prove that we are sampling from same distributions?

The content of this question is about rigorously proving something which is otherwise considered easily correct intuitively. Let's assume we have a multivariate distribution $g(x_1,x_2,...,x_n)$ over ...
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1answer
94 views

Monte Carlo method error in Bernoulli random variables

Assume I am flipping an unfair coin. Flipping the coin will be heads with probability $p$ and tails with $1-p$. I have no idea what $p$ is (it could even be $.5$!) Let's say I decide to use the Monte ...
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1answer
65 views

Monte Carlo estimator

I have hopefully a short/simple question regarding monte carlo estimators. The expected value of a function of a random variable can be defined as: $$E[f(x)] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} f(x) p(x) dx$$ ...
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1answer
145 views

Alternatives to Monte-Carlo simulation

Imagine I have a model of economy of a region, which consists of several companies, importers and population. Let's assume that all local companies in question produce food and agricultural ...
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1answer
49 views

Confusion about Monte Carlo integration

I find I can not really understand the Monte Carlo integration, even I use it for many applications, like stochastic ray tracing. Let us take circle-area-calculation for an example, First, we think ...
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1answer
148 views

Monte Carlo integration, expected value of the sample mean and expected value of f(x)

I am still progressing in my learning of probability and monte carlo method. I understand a basic MC estimator can be written as: $$\bar x = { 1 \over N } \sum_{i=1}^N f(x_i) \approx E[f(x)]$$ I ...
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1answer
123 views

Monte Carlo sampling a binomial expansion

I want to figure out the following question $$ 1 = (10 - 9)^{100} = 10^{100}-100 \times 10^{99} \ 9 + \frac{100 \times 99}{2} 10^{98} \ 9^{2} - \frac{100 \times 99 \times 98 }{3}10^{97} 9^{3} ...
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1answer
36 views

Why cannot the Markov Chains used in MCMC simulations be null recurrent?

I am aware this question borderlines retardedness, but I am seeking an accurate explanation. I understand in null-recurrent cases, the expected amount of time to explore states can be infinite. Is ...
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2answers
434 views

How to decide what is the probability distribution in a Monte-Carlo simulation?

For a Monte-Carlo integration of $$\int_\Omega P(x)f(x)\ \text d x,$$ there seems to be no apriori distinction if $f$ or $P$ is the probability function. So does it matter if I consider $$P, f, P ...
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105 views

Finding a distribution of a random variable generated using a Monte Carlo method

I would greatly appreciate if somebody could confirm or negate my result to the following problem. I am especially not sure about "putting it all together" step. Generate $U_1,U_2,U_3 \sim ...
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5 views

LDA with fixed topics?

Suppose I have a collection of "topic" probability distributions $\{\phi^{z}\}$ for LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) that I have found via alternate methods; is there a closed form MLE for the ...
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24 views

Double integral estimation with Monte Carlo method by importance

I have this integral $\int_{0}^{\infty}\int_{0}^{\infty} e^{-x-y-xy}dxdy$ I have to estimate the value of it using the Monte Carlo method, using as importance function the exponential PDF. Does ...
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15 views

Monte Carlo simulations, accuracy of mean vs variance of answers

I am working on a Monte Carlo simulation where two inputs are being used, $N$ is the amount of simulations I use, and $M$ controls the detail of each simulation (specifically the amount of time step ...
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1answer
30 views

Looking for Method to evaluate the optimal node rate vs number of simulation rate in a Monte Carlo simulation

I am currently working on evaluating an American Option using a Monte Carlo simulation, and I am getting answers but they vary quite a bit. The two variables that I can alter are number of simulations ...
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6 views

Additive model and simulation of the time series

It will be great if somebody could help me with following task.. Im trying to solve it about 3 days and read a lot of papers according this issue, but it doesnt work My task is to simulate a time ...
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1answer
13 views

A question about importance sample and Metropolis Algorithm

I am reading this paper by Beichl, I., & Sullivan, F. (2000) on Metropolis algorithm. I understand rejection sample. In the section "The Rejection Sample", I can understand the equation: ...
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15 views

How to choose a proper numerical optimisation method

Given a problem in numerical analysis in finance/econometrics, how to decide whther to choose Monte Carlo, Newton Raphson , Finite Difference , Gradient descent? I had this silly misconception that ...
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17 views

How to rewrite function for squared uniform distribution

The question is as follows: I am evaluating the following integral: $$\int_o^1\frac{\exp(\sqrt{1-x^2})}{\sqrt{x}}dx$$ by assuming it equals $E[f(U)]$ for a uniform distribution. I worked it out via ...
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1answer
12 views

Logic with increasing monte carlo possible output

I am working on Monte Carlo algorithm : Given that you have an experiment MC which has a p-correct of 75%, which means it gives you the right answer 75% of the time. You run MC3 which repeats MC 3 ...
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13 views

SEnsitivity Indices are non zero

I am trying to compute the sensitivity indices (SI) of a function using Monte Carlo simulation. I had written a matlab code that perform the computation directly and just return the final answer of my ...
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20 views

Is there a such thing as a quasi-random shuffle?

I've recently experimented with Quasi-random numbers in monte-carlo applications. Is there a way to construct a quasi-random shuffle? By that I mean can I take a sequence $Q$ and shuffle it to produce ...
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29 views

Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulation

I am going to post the python code logic we used however I want someone to look at the number that are printing out. The Markov chain is uniformly distributed across all $50x50$ matrices with entries ...
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9 views

Using the rejection method to generate values

I'm trying to solve the following problem on rejection sampling: I think I have a good idea about what rectangle I should be using. In my mind, it would be a rectangle just large enough to encompass ...
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8 views

Sensitivity analysis of paramaters and input variables

I am trying to perform a sensitivity analysis of an optimization problem $f(x,\alpha)= \min_{ Q} {g(x,\alpha , Q)}$ where $x$ is an input variable for our function, and $\alpha $ is a parameter. ...
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1answer
31 views

Compute the Std. Deviation of Multiple Monte Carlo Estimation of $\pi$

For a school programming assignment, I am trying to compute the value of $\pi$ via the classic Monte Carlo estimation of $\pi$. In the experiment, we throw a variable number of darts at a circle that ...
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17 views

How to sample points from a bounded polytope?

I have a bounded polytope $C \subset \mathbb{R}^n$ characterized by the following restraints: $$ x \in C \Leftrightarrow \sum_{i=1}^n x_i = 1 \text{ and } Ax \leq b$$ for some matrix $A \in ...
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1answer
29 views

Approximation and Monte Carlo simulation.

I am a bit up over my head here, I will present an argument and then I hope you guys will say if my reasoning is correct or what should be changed, ultimately I am hoping to say something qualified ...