Questions on Monte Carlo methods, methods that require the repeated generation of (pseudo-, quasi-)random numbers for computing their results.

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251 views

Monte Carlo standard deviation of the mean estimate too small.

I'm doing a Monte Carlo calculation and use the standard deviation of the mean $\sigma_M$ as the error. To get an estimate of this from the regular standard deviation I use $$\sigma_M=\dfrac\sigma ...
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18 views

Showing that the variance increases with the dimension of the random vector

This is actually related to a more complex question; but I want to re-ask it by trying to simplifying it as possible: 1- We have $n$ dimensional functions of the form $f_n:\mathbb{R}^{n} \mapsto ...
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1answer
38 views

Uniform convergence of Monte Carlo approximation

Usually Monte Carlo method is used to compute integration. For example, let $g(x,\theta)$ be a continuous function about $x$ and $\theta$, $f(x \mid \theta)$ is a continuous pdf with parameter ...
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2answers
29 views

Let Y be a random variable with $0\le Y\le 1.$ [duplicate]

Let Y be a random variable with $$0\le Y\le 1.$$Show that $$var(Y)\le 1/4 $$ and that $$var(Y)= 1/4 $$ if and only if P(0)=1/2=P(1).
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20 views

How to show that the variance increases with the dimension $n$?

This can be seen as a statistics related question, but it is actually a more general mathematics related one. I am trying to understand the Particle Filter and the motivation to use it over the ...
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3answers
387 views

Using loop to approximate pi (Monte Carlo, MATLAB)

I've written the following code, based on a for loop to approximate the number pi using the Monte-Carlo-method for 100, 1000, 10000 and 100000 random points. ...
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25 views

Monte carlo error: Combining “experimental” and statistical errors

I'm doing a slightly involved Monte Carlo approximation of a quantity $E$ where I end up with the following formula: $E=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^np_ie_iG_i}{\sum_{i=1}^np_iG_i}\ .\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ $ (1) ...
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1answer
33 views

Generating two $-1$ correlated Poisson random variables with parameter $5$

Is it possible to generate two random variables $X$ and $Y$ that are both $Poisson(5)$ with $Corr(X,Y)=-1$? Why? I was thinking about generating $3$ independent Poisson random variables $Z_1,Z_2, and ...
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1answer
85 views

How to mathematically prove that we are sampling from same distributions?

The content of this question is about rigorously proving something which is otherwise considered easily correct intuitively. Let's assume we have a multivariate distribution $g(x_1,x_2,...,x_n)$ over ...
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1answer
53 views

Resolve integral with importance sample Monte Carlo

I'm trying to compute the integral $$\int_{a}^{b}(\sin( 1 + x ) + \cos( 1 + x ))e^{-x}\ dx$$ using importance sample Monte Carlo method. The exercise ask to use Cauchy Distribution to resolve the ...
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2answers
204 views

variance of 26 cards chosen from a deck

Suppose I have a well shuffled deck and I am trying to find the variance of 26 cards randomly chosen without replacement from a deck, assuming the values are from 1 to 13 for the cards. Since the mean ...
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37 views

Monte Carlo with error on individual samples

I'm performing a Monte Carlo integration where the individual samples have an error, and I'm wondering how to estimate the final error. Some more detail: The integral E I'm after is estimated in the ...
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1answer
40 views

Calculate expectation under risk neutral measure: $\mathbb{E_Q}(\max(S-1,0))$

I am busy with a numerical simulation and I want the calculate the following expectation under the risk neutral measure: $\mathbb{E_Q}(\max(S-1,0))$. $S$ is some variable that I calculated using ...
2
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1answer
92 views

Proving that Markov Chain Monte Carlo converges

I am trying to understand how the very basic Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach works: We try to approximately calculate the expected value $E_{\pi(x)}[X]$ by drawing sequential samples from a Markov ...
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0answers
41 views

Monte carlo formula to compute the approximation of variance of MLE

In the book of "Monte Carlo Statistical Methods", the book gives an approximation formula for the variance of MLE, Later on, the book mentions that this approximation formula can be written as ...
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11 views

control variates - estimating definite integrals

What are the good techniques to find $g(x)$ so that $f (x) - g(x)$ is minimal, in order to evaluate $\int_a^b [(f(x) - g(x)) + g(x)]dx$?
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1answer
33 views

Analytic approach to find probability and total value of a set of independent events

I have a forecasting worksheet which describes a set (worksheet) of independent events, all of which have a likelihood of happening given as a probability (e.g. 0.7). Every event also has a yield ...
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1answer
91 views

Sample uniform direction within cone

My question is pretty much the same as this question below, however I came up with a potential solution to this problem that I didn't see an answer to in the other question and I was wondering if it ...
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1answer
38 views

Determining Errors in Monte Carlo Simulation

I was wondering if anyone could throw light on possible errors associated with Monte Carlo sampling. I seem to be getting values that are slightly different each time despite running my model for ...
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2answers
138 views

Algorithm to find best in class of groups with weighting?

I have widgets and a single widget will have attributes of: Name Weight (decimal from 0-1) Group (letter A-F) Price (an integer from 1 - 100) I must pick one ...
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24 views

Antithetic pair of non-independent normal random variables

Suppose that I have two non-independent normal random variables, X and Y such that $(X,Y)$ has mean 0 and the following variance covariance matrix: \begin{bmatrix} 1 & \rho ...
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30 views

Understanding graph obtained from Monte-Carlo simulations

I am running a Monte Carlo Simulation where I sample from about 65 Normal Distributions. I also keep track of the probability associated with each sample by approximating a thin area in the Normal ...
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31 views

low discrepancy of halton sequences

I want to proof, that the Halton sequence is low discrepancy. I have to show that $$D_N^*(\mathcal{S})\le C\frac{\ln(N)^s}{N}$$ where $D_N^*$ ist the star discrepancy, $\mathcal{S}$ is the Halton ...
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2answers
219 views

Monte Carlo estimator of the number of 1's in a very long binary sequence

Preface The question below is related to a problem I am working on, which requires counting the number of times a logic-valued function evaluates "TRUE" given an input value. The size of my input set ...
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1answer
151 views

Obtaining useful information from graph obtained via Monte-Carlo Simulations

I've been running Monte Carlo Simulations on some Matlab code and then plot the graph shown below. I was just wondering what useful information I could collect from this graph? Edit: fit ...
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1answer
38 views

How do we calculate when to shout for the optimal payoff?

For example: A non-dividend paying stock is currently priced at $20, and you hold a put that allows early exercise in 2 months and in 4 months. The option expires in 6 months. Volatility is 30%, and r ...
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1answer
105 views

Buffon's experiment with squares

Say, we'd like to make the Buffon's experiment but with squares instead of needles. Notation: $d$ is the distance between lines $b$ is the square side length $y$ is the distance from the center of ...
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2answers
66 views

How many simulations for a game?

Lately I was interested by Monte-Carlo simulations. I found many papers about this approach in the Internet but for now they are too hard for me. I just want to start understanding this method with ...
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34 views

Average over all positive functions on the unit interval whose Lebesgue integral is one

I want to average over all positive functions on the unit interval whose Lebesgue integral is one. Formally, I want to compute the mean of the following probability distribution defined over function ...
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1answer
33 views

Bias Method in monte carlo integration

This is from a proof in my monte carlo course. let $h$ be a smooth function, $T_n = h(\bar{X})$ $\mu = E(X)$ then by taylor expansion $E(T_n -\tau) = E[h(\bar{X} -h(\mu)] = E[\bar{X} - \mu]h'(\mu)+ ...
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1answer
110 views

Monte carlo estimation of maximum likelihood estimators

I'm interested in numerically finding the maximum likelihood estimator of a parameter $\theta$, as well as the confidence interval of this estimator. First I'll describe the method I've been trying, ...
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1answer
54 views

Numerical integration of innocent-looking singular integrand

Consider the rather innocent integral: $$I=\int_{0}^{1}a x^{a-1}dx=1,\quad 0<a<1$$ Numerically, this integral converges awfully slowly, and one must use a recursive method to get anywhere near ...
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1answer
85 views

Monte Carlo estimations of e

I need to estimate $e$ with a monte carlo method. We only learned the crude monte carlo integration, so I can't use any robust monte carlo simulations. I know that $\displaystyle \int\limits_1^x ...
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69 views

Monte Carlo Integration help.

I need to evaluate the following internal: $I=\int^{+\infty}_{-\infty}\dots\int^{+\infty}_{-\infty} f(x_,x_2,x_3\dots x_n) {1\over (\sqrt{2\pi})^N}e^{-{1\over2}x_1^2-{1\over2}x_2^2 \dots ...
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54 views

$\pi$ Monte-Carlo - Probability that O-Lock hit a Spoke?

(Edit: can someone please help me migrate this to physics stack? I think they would be more interested in helping me out with this problem. Thanks.) I have a bicycle with one of those O-locks on it ...
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1answer
37 views

finding the optimal decision value for two dependent random events.

I have been struggling with this problem regarding options (bermuda) for some time now. You can exercise this option on two seperate occasions namely at $T_1$ or $T_2$ with a strike price $E$. The ...
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51 views

Density estimation using conditional Monte Carlo simulation

In Stochastic Simulation: Algorithms and Analysis by Glynn and Asmussen on p 146 they provide the following example. Let $f(x)=a/(1+x)^{a+1}$ be the density of a pareto distribution and let $a=3/2$ ...
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42 views

Product Involving Sines

I'm studying the following product: $$p(a,\omega)=\prod_{k=1}^{\infty}a\sin (k\omega\pi),\quad \omega \in \Bbb R,\quad a\in \Bbb R_+.$$ It's easy to see that for $a\in (0,1]$ this product diverges to ...
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1answer
94 views

Monte Carlo method error in Bernoulli random variables

Assume I am flipping an unfair coin. Flipping the coin will be heads with probability $p$ and tails with $1-p$. I have no idea what $p$ is (it could even be $.5$!) Let's say I decide to use the Monte ...
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49 views

Monte-Carlo tree search convergence proof

I have been doing some reading about Monte-Carlo tree search for games, recently. The Wikipedia article mentions that the algorithm converges to the minimax evaluation for finite zero-sum two-player ...
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3answers
126 views

How do I generate $100$ numbers in $[0,1]$ which are more dense at $0$ and $1$?

I just need to generate random numbers in $[0,1]$ which are more dense at the end points. I first thought of generating two sets of numbers from $N(0,1)$ and $N(1,1)$, and then using those. But that ...
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1answer
65 views

Monte Carlo estimator

I have hopefully a short/simple question regarding monte carlo estimators. The expected value of a function of a random variable can be defined as: $$E[f(x)] = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} f(x) p(x) dx$$ ...
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2answers
46 views

Analytic methods vs Monte Carlo (terminology)

What's the correct terminology to say "We can calculate the probability exactly using pure math, as opposed to Monte Carlo simulation"? Analytically sounds like we need Calculus, which we may not ...
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1answer
39 views

Question about the Monte Carlo Algortihm

I was reading the Monte Carlo algorithm for finding the area under a curve, say $y=f(x)$. The algorithm considers, $0\le f(x)\le M$ over the closed interval $a\le x\le b$. My question is,that why is ...
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81 views

Monte Carlo Integration

I was reading this document (I will reproduce the equation): ...
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1answer
145 views

Alternatives to Monte-Carlo simulation

Imagine I have a model of economy of a region, which consists of several companies, importers and population. Let's assume that all local companies in question produce food and agricultural ...
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1answer
96 views

Why Gibbs sampling needn't “remixing”

I am generating $\mathbf{x}^{(1)}, \mathbf{x}^{(2)}, \dots, \mathbf{x}^{(n)}$ using Gibbs sampling methods. So I want $\mathbf{x}^{(1)}, \mathbf{x}^{(2)}, \dots, \mathbf{x}^{(n)} \sim$ some ...
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2answers
397 views

Please explain Monte Carlo method

Generally I understand the idea of the Monte Carlo method. However, when I read articles about it, there is always shown an example of calculating pi using a square, into which we insert 1/4th of a ...
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2answers
50 views

Advantage gained by Blackjack rule variation

There are many tables, charts and simulations for standard Blackjack variations and the % change in house edge that each rule introduces, like this one, for example. I have come across a Blackjack ...
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1answer
49 views

Confusion about Monte Carlo integration

I find I can not really understand the Monte Carlo integration, even I use it for many applications, like stochastic ray tracing. Let us take circle-area-calculation for an example, First, we think ...