1
vote
1answer
43 views

Estimate arrival time of a ship given the average of the ships in a day in a Poisson Distribution

I'm working in a simulation of a Port where ships come to specific stations of the port. I already know that the average amount of ships is given by a Poisson distribution and the service time (On ...
0
votes
2answers
68 views

Could the birthday paradox be interpreted also about deaths?

Is the probability from the birthday paradox also true about deaths? If so, why? Or why not? I would think that it is also true about deaths, but it doesn't say so.
5
votes
1answer
48 views

At what point discrepancy, in the NBA, does it make sense to milk the shot clock?

I am admittedly not great with probabilities, so I am soliciting the help of the community. I am watching game 3 of the NBA Finals and I am trying to work out when it makes sense to milk the shot ...
1
vote
0answers
28 views

Distribution of phone calls during 24h

I would like to model the amount of phone calls at each time of the day. The phone calls should follow a poisson distribution and at 12:00 there should be the peak. So, semantically what I would like ...
0
votes
0answers
11 views

looking for asymmetric probability distribution

In physics, quantities are sometimes measured with both an upper and lower error. For example, I might say that an object's mass is $m = 10^{+0.1}_{-0.2} \text{ kg}$. In my case, these arise from ...
0
votes
0answers
39 views

Probabilistic model of parallel web servers

Note: The following probabilistic model of parallel web servers is abstracted from an engineering project. I am not good at probability theory and I am seeking some evaluations and suggestions. ...
0
votes
0answers
49 views

Stationary distribution of a “birth-death model” that does not have Markov property

A typical birth-death process is defined such as the probability of going from any state $j$ to any state $i$ is given by: $$ p_{ij}= \begin{cases} b_i & \text {if $j = i+1$} \\ ...
1
vote
1answer
125 views

Real life scenario, probability model required for accidental vs supernatural causation.

A = HUMAN 1 B = HUMAN 2 A is related to B, specifically A is the father of B A goes on holiday 5 years ago, staying in a hotel in popular tourist spot near Scotland (long way from home) During ...
1
vote
2answers
295 views

There are 5 servers. Each server has 1% downtime. What's the probability that at at least three servers are down?

There are 5 servers. Each server has $1$% downtime. What's the probability that at at least three servers are down? My reasoning is the following: A) There is $(1-0.01)^5$ probability that $5$ from ...
0
votes
1answer
45 views

What is a good approximation of $(1-p)(1-q)$ as $(1-x)^2$, for $p,q \in (0,1)$?

I'm doing some scientific modeling, and I want to use $(1-x)^2$ to approximate $(1-p)(1-q)$, with $p, q \in (0,1)$. $p$ and $q$ are probabilities, and are not near zero. My intuition is that since ...
2
votes
1answer
150 views

Combining probabilities from different sample spaces

I'm working on a project whereby I'm supposed to determine whether two objects (parts of moving machinery) will be in physical contact with one another given the uncertainty in their positions. I know ...
1
vote
0answers
43 views

Suggest a random phenomenon for which the Galton-Watson branching process might provide a reasonable model.

Suggest a random phenomenon for which the Galton–Watson branching process might provide a reasonable model. Be clear about the random variable beingcounted (Zn) and the interpretation of the notion of ...
-1
votes
1answer
186 views

Expected utility and St. Petersburg paradox

Can someone explain to me how they get the $10.94$ at the Expected utility theory section of the solutions to the St. Petersburg paradox? My problem is that they use a formula to calculate the ...
0
votes
1answer
58 views

The mean infective period in a SIR Model

I'm going to quote the relevant passage in the textbook and then ask my question. The assumption that the infectives leave the infective class at rate $\alpha I$ per unit time requires a ...
0
votes
1answer
44 views

Probability & Forecasts

I am doing a forecast on turnover and would like to know how i can work out the probability that the next sales figure will be over a certain amount given that we have all the data from previous ...
0
votes
1answer
34 views

How to find $X_i$ from this equation

Suppose $X_i=\nu_i+\frac{m-i}{m}X_{i+1}+\frac{i}{m}X_{i-1},\quad 1\le i\le m$ where $X_0=X_{m+1}=0$. I need to find an expression for $X_i$ in terms of $v_i$, $i$, and $m$. I know how to find it ...
0
votes
1answer
45 views

probability with Poisson distribution

according to the experience of a bank staff,there are 2 old paper money IN EACH MONEY PACKET.if the number of old papers money,in each money packet,follow poisson distribution, a)what is the ...
0
votes
2answers
66 views

Modeling dependency between two variables

I want to model the dependence between two variables. Now there are a few ways to do this, for example writing one variable as a function of the other or using correlation. I have also looked into ...
4
votes
2answers
259 views

Biology: Wright-Fisher model of genetic drift

In evolutionary biology (in population genetics to be more accurate) exists the concept of genetic drift. It describes how an allele (gene variant) (that has no advantage or disadvantage in terms of ...
0
votes
2answers
411 views

Time Series: Expected value autoregressive model

I have some trouble solving the following question: Given is model $X$: $X_t = (W_t -1)*W_{t-1}$ Where $W_t$ is the stationary process: $W_t = p*W_{t-1} + Z_t$ Where $Z_t$ is distributed ...
2
votes
3answers
65 views

How to model a doubling process with errors

An original document is duplicated. With probability $p_{err}$ a mistake is made in the copy (we will dub the resulting document the "wrong" document.) Both the original and the copy (right, or wrong) ...
0
votes
1answer
78 views

Statistics on three variables/factors

I have what is probably a simple problem. I'm trying to say something about sells of candy bars. I got data of sells for a population of children. There are three parameters (factors) to this data: ...
1
vote
0answers
270 views

How to calculate probability with sigmoid output in feedforward neural network?

first of all I'm sorry for my not very skilled English, but I will do my best to explain my problem. I'm trying to create a feedforward neural network with one hidden layer (with probably arctan ...
0
votes
1answer
72 views

Calculating the expected number of items shared by chance in a Venn Diagram

I have a Venn Diagram that looks like this: $$A) \, 213 \quad B) \, 160 \quad A\cap B) \, 100$$ The items from $A$ come from a population where their probability to be selected is ...
3
votes
1answer
199 views

exponential population growth models using $e$?

Im trying to understand this write up [1] of cell population growth models and am confused about the use of natural logarithms. If cells double at a constant rate starting from 1 cell, then their cell ...
1
vote
0answers
46 views

How to model a system with multiple probability distributions, each for a part of the system?

I need to build a complex probability model to describe some "real world" scenarios. The system consists of several types of objects, and the contraints upon these objects and their interactions are ...
-3
votes
1answer
257 views

In general, is it easier to solve problems that have random variables, or problems that are basically the same that don't [closed]

This question is asked because I don't understand how random variables will affect various math problems, and knowledgeable mathematicians would. By easier, we mean less steps If we make our own ...
2
votes
0answers
96 views

Modelling randomized cup stacking, animal behaviour

This question has no scientific relevance for me whatsoever, but is a real life question which left me puzzled for a while. Even though I am not going anywere with this, maybe there is still somebody ...
0
votes
0answers
83 views

Modeling with a Bivariate Gaussian Distribution

In an earlier question I inquired about contour lines reflecting probability values in a Bivariate Gaussian Distribution. I have spent some time thinking and playing around with a Mathematica ...
3
votes
1answer
245 views

Conditional Expectation and the floor function

I have a piece of code the produces random integers. ...
2
votes
0answers
138 views

How to model server load?

I want to model the server under load. I'm using following assumptions: The server serves only one request at a time, and all requests take him exactly 100ms to process. All requests that came ...
3
votes
1answer
689 views

Understanding the Pareto distribution as applied to wealth

The Pareto distribution is used to say, given a particular person X, what is the pdf of his wealth. I would like to explore the reciprocal question: Given the total amount of wealth in a population, ...
2
votes
0answers
46 views

Deriving functions for empiracal distributions -very applied mathatics

First I am a new user of this site. Second my math background is very limited, although I do have a lot of experience in applied statistics. Component or piece part failures on high value parts($1000 ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

Probability in single-lane traffic flow: What are the odds of “choke points” being encountered?

Let's say you have a single-lane road (single in this case meaning single lane in each direction, or what you could also call two-lane). Let's say you have a random number of vehicles on a given ...