For question about discrete or continuous (super/sub)martingales. Often used with [probability-theory] tag.

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Centered independent increments process is a martingale

Let $(X_n)$ be an centered integrable process with independent increments (which as far as I understand means that $(X_{n+1}-X_n)_{n\in \mathbb N}$ is independent). While showing that $(X_n)$ is a ...
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47 views

$E[M_t|H_t]$ is a martingale with respect to $H=(H_t)_{t\geq 0}$, $H_t \subset \mathcal{F}_t \forall t$

Being $(M_t)_{t \geq 0}$ an $\mathcal{F}$-martingale, I have to show that $E[M_t|H_t]$ is a martingale with respect to $H$ ($H=(H_t)_{t\geq 0}$, $H_t \subset \mathcal{F}_t \forall t$). I proceded ...
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34 views

Do we need $\tau \leq \nu$ to show $E(X_\tau)=E(X_\nu)$?

My lecture notes claim that if $(X_n)$ is a martingale and $\tau$ is a stopping time bounded by $N$ then $$E(X_\tau)=E(X_{\tau \wedge N})=E(X_{\tau \wedge 0})=E(X_0)$$ and then remarks that if $\tau$ ...
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26 views

Is there a Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for martingale increments?

is there a Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for martingale increments? More specifically, I would like to find a finite bound of order $h^{p/2}$ for the expectation $$\operatorname{E} \left[ \sup_{t ...
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68 views

Stochastic integration by parts formula to prove identity between iterated integrals

if $(M_t)_{t \geq 0}$ is a continuous local martingale, one can define the iterated integrals $I_0=1$, $I_1(t)=M_t$ and for $n \geq 2$ $$I_{n}(t) = \int_0^t I_{n-1} (s) \mathrm{d} M_s.$$ By noting ...
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27 views

If a random integral has moments of all orders, is the same true for its kernel?

Suppose you have a continuous semimartingale $S_t=M_t + A_t$ where $A_t$ is the continuous finite variation part which has the form $A_t = \int_0^t b_s \, \mathrm{d} s$, where $\int_0^{\infty} |b_s| ...
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271 views

Filtration and measure change

I'm reading Steven E. Shreve's "Stochastic calculus for finance II", and find myself not really understand the concept of "filtration". Yes, the definition of filtration is straight forward, it's ...
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74 views

Suitable martingales and optional stopping theorem

Starting at value 0, the fortune of an investor increases per week by 200 with probability 3/8, remains constant with probability 3/8 and decreases by 200 with probability 2/8. The weekly increments ...
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37 views

Is $Q_n(A_n)=E(L_n A_n)$ a probability measure?

Let $(\Omega, F, F_t, P)$ be a filtered probability space and $(L_n)_{n \geq0}$ a family of positive and $F_t$ adapted random variables. I have to find the conditions for which $Q_n$, defined on ...
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93 views

On the conditional expectation.

I want to prove that: if $E[M_t\mid\mathcal{F}_s]=0$ where $\mathcal{F}_s$ is the filtration generated by a stochastic process X knowing that $E[M_t\prod_0^n h_i(X_{t_i})]=0$ for all $n\in N,\quad ...
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72 views

Occupancy distribution bounds for $k$ balls in $m$ bins

Suppose we throw $k$ (distinct) balls into $m$ (distinct) bins, and let $B$ count the number of non-empty bins. I am interested in lower bounds on $B$. More precisely, I wish to bound from above the ...
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33 views

Writing a martingale as the difference of two non-negative martingales

Assumption: $ (M_{t})_{t \geq 0}$ is a martingale w.r.t $(\mathcal{F}_t)_{t \geq 0}$ Question: Why can I write $M_t$ as the difference of two non-negative martingales? Attempt: $ M_t = M_t^{+} - ...
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138 views

A martingale with bounded increments either converges or diverges to both infinities a.s.

I am reading page 236 "Probability : theory and examples" by R. Durrett. Theorem 31. Let $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ be a martingale with $|X_{n+1}-X_n|\leq M<\infty$. Let $C=\{\lim X_n \;\;\; \text{exists ...
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42 views

Prove that the discrete time martingale can be represented by $E (Y_{n +1} \mid F_n) = 0$ if $Y_{n +1} = X_{n +1}-X_n$, for $n = 0,1, \ldots $

Prove that the discrete time martingale can be represented by $E (Y_{n +1} \mid F_n) = 0$ if $Y_{n +1} = X_{n +1}-X_n$, for $n = 0,1, \ldots $ I want to use the sequence $(y_n)$ called "martingale ...
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97 views

Every Lipschitz function is the primitive of a measurable function

I was doing exercise 5 of this exercise sheet and I don't know how to conclude. I need to prove that if $f \colon [0,1]\to \mathbb{R}$ is Lipshitz, $X$ is a uniform$(0,1)$ random variable and ...
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1answer
72 views

Martingale based on normal PDF evaluated at normalized i.i.d. sums

I have the following problem. $(X_n)_{n\geq0}, n\in\mathrm{R}$, is a family of iid r.v., normally distributed $\mathcal{N}(0,1)$ $\mathcal{F_n} := \sigma((X_i)_{1\leq i\leq n})$ $x\in\mathrm{R}, ...
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91 views

Limit value of a product martingale

This question came from a problem i was solving for self-study. I'll state the problem first: Let $Y_n \sim \mathcal N(0,\sigma^2)$ be independent normally distributed variables, $X_n = ...
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65 views

Applying Ito lemma to multi dimensional semimartingales

Let $X_t=(X^1,\dots,X^d$) be a d-dimensional semimartingale. Then the formula for Ito's lemma I have found in several places, including wikipedia, is: $f(X_T)-f(X_0)=\sum_{i=1}^d\int_0^T ...
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25 views

Exponential Inequalities for Martingales

So I was having a read of the paper here: Exponential Inequalities for Self-Normalized Martingales. I am particularly interested in Remark 4.2, which states that if $M_n$ is a Gaussian martingale (and ...
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128 views

Deducing an optimal gambling strategy (using martingales).

Apologies in advance for the length, I tried being precise. Suppose a game where in each turn you can gamble a certain amount of money on the result of a fair coin toss. If the coin comes out tails ...
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47 views

Product of independent continuous local martingales is local martingale

Revuz-Yor's book mentioned if $M$ and $N$ are independent continuous local martingales, then $MN$ is still local martingale. But I don't know how to prove it. Any help, thanks!
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31 views

Finding the unique Martingale Convergence Representation of a given r.v.

According to the martingale representation there exists a unique $g(t,\omega) \in \mathcal{V}(0,T)$ such that $M_t = E[M_0]+\int^{t}_{0} g(s,\omega) dB(s); \ \ \ t \in [0,T]$ Find g in the case ...
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45 views

martingale difference

I am trying to solve the following question. {$ξ_k$} is $F_n$-martingale difference (i.e. for every $n$, $E[ξ_n|F_{n-1}]=0 $ a.s. ) Also, for every $n$ , $E[ξ_n^2]<\infty$ Show that ...
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93 views

Qual Question concerning martingale

Suppose $X_n$ is a sequence of random variables that has the property that $\sup|X_n| \leq 1$ a.s. Then use Doob's decomposition to prove that $\sum_{n\geq 1} X_n$ converges a.s. iff the sum ...
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53 views

More preliminaries of the Martingale Convergence Theorem

Really struggling with this lemma. Not sure about the general structure of the proof. Why have we chosen g to be orthogonal to all functions of the form 4.3.1? Why should $G(\lambda)=0$, does it ...
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36 views

Preliminaries of the Martingale Representation Theorem

I cannot understand why we are taking a dense subset of $[0,T]$. Furthermore, I cannot see a result that would allow each such $g_n(B_{t_1},\ldots,B_{t_n})$ to be approximated in ...
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About the space $((R^n)^{[0,\infty)},\mathcal{B},\tilde{Q}^x)$ in Oksendal SDE book

I am reading the book Stochastic differential equations (6th ed.) by Oksendal. I am not sure about the meaning on P.146. (Below Theorem 8.3.1) It says that ``if we identify each $\omega \in \Omega$ ...
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80 views

Why are stochastic processes with decreasing expected value called supermartingales?

I am curious to know why a process which has decreasing expected value is called a supermartingale. From a beginners perspective it would seem reasonable to have the following picture: ...
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54 views

Every martingale is also a martingale with respect to its own filtration

I want to prove the following: Let $A_0, A_1, ..$ be a martingale with respect to the sequence $B_0, B_1, ..$. then $(A_i)_{i\geq0}$ is also a martingale with respect to itself. I have no idea how ...
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Rate of convergence of a martingale

I have a question related to convergence rates of martingales: Assume that there is a sequence of maximized likelihood ratios: $ \frac{f_{\hat{\theta}_{n}} \left ( Y_{1},Y_{2},\dots,Y_{n} \right ) ...
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88 views

Proving a property of hitting times of a simple random walk on $\mathbb{Z}$

I'm reading the course notes of a probability course about martingales currently and I'm trying to solve some of the exercises, however I'm very much stuck with the following exercise: Let $\left\{ ...
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92 views

If I bet half of my money each round in a fair gamble, what's the probability…

that I can make 10 times of what I initially have? Here's the formal description. In a fair gamble, I lose or double my wager each with probability 1/2. No matter how much money I have, I always ...
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58 views

Problem about martingale convergence in $L^p$

I'm trying to do the following exercise: I have a martingale $Z_n=A^{S_n}Q_A^{-n}$ where $A>1$, $Q_A=\frac{1}{2}(A+A^{-1})$ and $S_n=X_1+\cdots+X_n$ with $X_k$ r.v.'s iid such that ...
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47 views

Why is the Stopping Theorem interesting?

The theorem for discrete-time martingales is as follows: Let $X=(\Omega,\mathcal{F},(\mathcal{F}_n)_n,(X_n)_n,\mathrm{P})$ be a supermartingale and $\tau_1,\tau_2$ two a.s. bounded stopping times on ...
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73 views

An exponential martingale [closed]

Let $H_{t}$ be a bounded continuous and $\textbf{F}^{B}_{t}$ an adapted process. $B$ Brownian motion. Show that $M_{t}= \exp\left(-\int^{t}_{0}H_{s}dB_{s} -\frac{1}{2}\int^{t}_{0}H^{2}_{s}ds\right)$ ...
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102 views

Proving it's a martingale and more conditions.

Let $(X_{n})_{n>0}$ be a sequence of random variables in $[0, 1]$ and assuming that ($X_{0}=a) \epsilon [0, 1]$ then: $Pr\left(X_{n+1}=\frac{X_{n}}{2}|\mathcal{F}_{n}\right)=1-X_{n}$ and ...
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1answer
162 views

Rigorous Book on Stochastic Calculus

I have already taken a couse in Stochastic Calculus. Due to time constraints on many ocassions we had to skip some formalities among the proofs. I'm trying now to fill the gaps left, and I have been ...
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209 views

What is a fair game?

Suppose $X_n$ is the fortune of a gambler after $n$ th game. Then the game is called fair (Breiman 1968) if $$E[X_{n+1} \mid X_1, \dots, X_n] = X_n \forall n$$ My question is why a fair game is not ...
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Applications of martingale to gambling

In an unfavourable or fair sequence of games (where one has to bet a minimum amount if he wants to bet) one cannot keep betting indefinitely. There must be a last bet. The intuition behind this is not ...
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Second (centered) moment for martingales

Take the process ${x}_t$ following geometric Brownian motion (GBM) $$x_t=\mu x_t \,dt+\sigma x_t \,dW_t$$ with $x_0>0$ known. It has first moment equal to $$\text{E}[x_t]=x_0 e^{\mu t}$$ and second ...
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Why martingales need to be integrable?

In almost every book the definition of martingale ask for integrability of every random variable. Why this property is needed? If we remove it the property that the expected values is constant holds? ...
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28 views

Is there an example that shows that the optional stopping theorem fails for finite (unbounded) stopping times?

Is there a martingale $M=(M_t)_{t\geq 0}$ and finite stopping times $S,T$ with $S \leq T$ a.s. such that $\mathrm{E}(|M_T|)<\infty$, but $M_S \neq \mathrm{E}(M_T|\mathcal{F}_S)$ a.s.? I found a ...
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54 views

Azuma inequality with probabilistic bound for the increments

Let $(X_i)$ be a super-martingale and suppose their differences are bounded ''with high probability'', that is $$\mathbb{P}(\exists\,i=1,\dots,n\text{ s.t. }|X_i-X_{i-1}|>c_i) \,\leq\, \epsilon$$ ...
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40 views

Ito's process and martingale [duplicate]

Let ${W_t}$ be 1 dim Brownian motion and $X_t:=\exp(t/2)\cos W_t$ $t\in[0,T]$. Show that $X_t$ is martingale. My try is below. I understood $df(t,W_t)=-\exp(t/2)\sin xdW_t$ , but I don't know why ...
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1answer
61 views

Strict local martingale implies $\mathbb E_t[S_u]<S_t\ \forall t<u$

Is it true that if $S$ is a strict local martingale (i.e. it is a local martingale but not a true martingale) such that $S_t\ge 0\ \forall t$, then we have $$\mathbb E_t[S_u]<S_t\quad \forall ...
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1answer
111 views

martingale and stochastic Integral

Let ${W_t}$ be 1 dimension Brownian motion and $X_t:=\exp(t/2)\cos W_t$ $t\in[0,T]$. Show that $X_t$ is martingale. I understood $df(t,W_t)=-\exp(t/2)\sin xdW_t$ , but I don't know why it become ...
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1answer
111 views

Compute a probability in Random Walk by Martingales

Let $X_n$ be the state at time $n$ of a Markov chain with these transition probabilities : $$p_{i,i+1}=p_i\qquad,\qquad p_{i,i-1}=q_i=1-p_i$$ $(a)$ Show that $Z_n=g(X_n)\,;\,n\geq0$, is a ...
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1answer
29 views

Characterization of conditional independence

Definition: Let $\mathcal{G},\mathcal{K},\mathcal{H}$ be $\sigma $-subalgebras of $\mathcal{F}$, where $\left( {\Omega ,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P}} \right)$ is a given probability space. We say that ...
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66 views

Showing that a certain stochastic process does not have normal distributed increments

Edit: Question Resolved. See below. As a part of my bachelor thesis, I have to work through a paper about fake Brownian motion by Oleszkiewicz. In this paper he defines a stochastic process. Let ...
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1answer
42 views

Prove $X^2$ is a submartingale given X is a martingale

As stated in the question, I have an exam tomorrow and am looking to prove this result. I know: $$E(|X_n^2|) = E(X_n^2)$$ I don't know how to advance showing that this is finite. If anyone could ...