A stochastic process satisfying the Markov property: the distribution of the future states given the value of the current state does not depend on the past states. Use this tag for general state space processes (both discrete and continuous times); use (markov-chains) for countable state space ...

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Stronger version of Markov Chain

I have just started looking into the concept of Markov chains and I was wondering if anyone could help me with this problem. Let $X_1, X_2, ...$ be a Markov chain with the state space $S$. I need ...
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Two-state Markov Chains

If I have a two-state Markov chian $V(t)$ with transition probabilities: $P_{00}(t)=(1-\pi) + \pi e^{-\tau t}$ $P_{01}(t)= \pi - \pi e^{-\tau t}$ $P_{10}(t)=(1-\pi) - (1-\pi)e^{-\tau t}$ ...
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Computing smoothed state distribution in HMM

Suppose we have an HMM with two states: $s_1$ and $s_2$. The transitional model is as follows: $P(s_1|s_1) = 0.5$, and $P(s1|s2) = 0.25$. There are two observations: $P(a|s_1) = 0.25$ and $P(a|s_2) = ...
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Random walks : Hitting and recurrence Times relation

I have trouble understanding that how $$E\left[T_0|X_{0} = 0\right] = 1 + E[H_0|X_0=1] $$ where $T_0 = \inf\{n \geq 1:X_n = 0 \}$ and $H_A =\inf\{ n\geq 0: X_n \in A \}$. In other words $T_0$ is the ...
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Question about HMM

I have this HMM model that I need to solve. Unfortunately, my textbook isn't the best and only describes general cases which I have difficulty working with. Consider an HMM with two states: s1 and ...
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capacity of biased random walk in $\mathbb{Z}^2$

Let $P_{x,y}$ the probability that a random walk starting from $x$ will ever visit $y$. Consider a biased random walk in $\mathbb{Z}^2$. Let $A_k$ be the set of vertices having a distance less than ...
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78 views

Expected success of trial with conditions

Assume that $n$ people want to achieve a task T. One person can try, and is successful with probability $p$. But when a person try all the other have to do an other trial to have the right to ...
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66 views

Metropolis Hastings

So I have seen the Metropolis Hastings algorithm written 2 ways, and I don't quite understand how they can be equivalent: The first way is by defining the 'acceptance probability' as: ...
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71 views

Time sampling an ordinary poisson process

My questions will be given at the end, let me just give some definitions first. The counting process $\{ N(t), t \geq 0 \} $ is said to be a non homogenous Poisson process with intensity function ...
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59 views

Markov Process - formulate a Markov chain model for this system ( what is q(i,j)?)

Potential customers arrive at a full-service, two-pump gas station according to a Poisson process at a rate of 40 cars per hour. There are two service attendants to help customers, one for each pump. ...
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97 views

Joint density function Poisson Process

We did an example in class that I'm not sure how we came up with the answer. The problem is: If I let X(t) be a Poisson process of rate $\lambda$. I'm supposed to validate the identity ...
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78 views

Derivation of Kolmogorov Backward Equation for Inhomogeneous CTMC

I'm trying to clear something up regarding inhomogeneous CTMCs, and I just can't seem to get a proof working. So, I'm hoping that someone here could maybe give me some pointers :) I'm considering a ...
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52 views

Conditional Probabilities Poisson Process

If I let ${X(t); t>=0}$ be a Poisson process having rate parameter $\lambda = 2$. I'm supposed to determine the probability: Pr{${X(1)>=2 | X(1) >=1}$} My solution: I looked at this as ...
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31 views

Conditional Distribution Poisson Process

In class, our professor told us to verify this solution on our own time. The problem is: Let $\left\{X(t),t \geq 0 \right\}$ be a Poisson process of rate $\lambda$. For $s,t >0$, determine the ...
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50 views

Proving that the Markov chain is recurrent - Confusion/Help

Giving the following transition matrix [ 0.9 0.1 ] [ 0.8 .2 ] Classify the states From drawing the graph I know that both stats are recurrent. However I'm really failing to prove mathematically ...
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24 views

Is the steady state of a uniform markov chain always a vector of proportions?

Given that all edges in a markov chain are bi-directional (though not necessarily equally weighted), and each edge for a given node has equal probability, does the steady state always converge to a ...
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85 views

Finding the Kolmogorov's Backward equation

SO this question is probably really easy, I am just struggling in understanding how to do it It goes like this: we have a system with 3 components, at time $t=0$, component 1 is active and the other ...
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152 views

Strong Markov property of Bessel processes

I am thinking about the following: If $(B_t)_{t \geq 0}$ is a Brownian motion in $\mathbb{R}^3$, how can we show that the Bessel process (of order $3$) $(|B_t|)_{t \geq 0}$ has the strong Markov ...
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39 views

Understanding the proof of stationary distribution of a markov chain

I am reading the proof of existence of stationary distribution in an irreducible markov chain from the book Markov Chains and Mixing Times by P. D. A. Levin, Y. Peres, E. L. Wilmer, and I have the ...
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Preservation of the Markov Property for SDEs

Let $X$ be a continuous Markov process on $\mathbb{R}^d$ that is also a semimartingale. Let $V=(V_1,...,V_d)$ be a collection of suitably nice vector fields on $\mathbb{R}^d$ such that there exists a ...
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16 views

Proof of the “Markovian property” for the LERW?

I'm trying to understand this proof by Werner of the Markovian property of the Loop-erased random walk http://arxiv.org/pdf/math/0303354v1.pdf (page 10). The first part I see but the second "again, ...
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Is {Yt} a Brownian motion?

Suppose {B(t)} and {B˜(t)} are two independent standard Brownian motions and ρ is a constant, −1 < ρ < 1. The process Y(t) = ρB(t) + sqrt(1- ρ^2)*B˜(t) is distributed as a normal random variable ...
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58 views

Looking for an example of a process that holds the Markov property but doesn't hold the strong Markov property

I am desperately looking for a Markov process which does only hold the Markov property but doesn't hold the strong Markov property. All examples I can think of hold the Markov property, as well as the ...
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How to compute the variance of number of coin flips to see HTH sequence using linear system of equations.

Assuming fair coin flips, I know how to compute the expected number of coin flips to see HTH sequence by writing out the linear system of equations from the state transition diagram below. Define ...
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65 views

Can I think of both arrival times and service times in a Markov chain as Poisson processes?

According to the Wikipedia article about M/M/1 queues, the rate at which new jobs arrive is a Poisson process with parameter $\lambda$, and the rate at which the jobs are finished is an exponential ...
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58 views

Calculating the information per symbol of a markov chain source

I have a 4-state 2nd order markov chain source with symbols 0 and 1. I have all the transition probabilities and have worked out the probabilities of each state. How do I go about finding the amount ...
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137 views

Why are inter arrival times in the continuous version of discrete-time Markov chains always exponentially distributed?

I am curious whether there exist continuous time Markov processes for which the times between jumping times (which I call inter arrival times) are not exponentially distributed, but have some other ...
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56 views

Mean and Variance of an offspring

If I have that the number of offspring of an individual in a population is $0$, $1$, or $2$ with respective probabilities $a>0$, $b>0$ and $c>0$, where $a+b+c=1$, how would I express the mean ...
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75 views

Finding mean and variance of a population problem

A population beings with a single individual. In each generation, each individual in the population dies with probability $1/2$ or doubles with probability $1/2$. If I let $X_n$ denote the number of ...
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189 views

Find the Stationary Distribution of an infinite state Markov chain

A Markov Chain on states 0,1,..... has transition probabilities $P_{ij}=1/(i+2)$ for j=0,1,....,i,i+1. I'm supposed to find the stationary distribution. So do I take the limit as n goes to ...
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Limiting Distribution of a Markov Chain

I'm having trouble understanding how to find a limiting distribution. If I have a Markov Chain whose transition probability matrix is: $$ \mathbf{P} = \matrix{~ & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 & ...
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46 views

Measurability of a stopping time in a Markov chain

Suppose you have a finite-state continuous-time inhomogeneous Markov chain with transition rate $Q(t)$. Further, let us suppose that $Q(t)$ is a piecewise continuous function of $t$. Two questions: ...
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Markov Property Confusion

I feel like I'm being very dense/employing some sort of circular reasoning, but I'm having trouble understanding the Markov Property. According to Durrett (ISBN-10:1461436141), $X_n$ is a Markov chain ...
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why are the recurrent classes closed?

i've recently started studying about markov chain, we call a communication class a recurrent one in a markov chain if by starting from that class we infinitely return to it with probability 1,with ...
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Resolvent of a Markov process

I have a question about theory of Markov processes. Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P)$ be a probability space. Let $E$ be a Hausdorff topological space and $\mathcal{B}(E)$ be its Borel $\sigma$-algebra ...
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Showing which classes are recurrent and which are transient

If I have a Markov chain on states {0,1,2,3,4,5} $$ \mathbf{a} = \matrix{~ & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\ 0 & 1/3 & 0 & 2/3 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ ...
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Invertibility of operators related to Markov processes in Ethier-Kurtz

Lemma 2.3 of the book by Ethier and Kurtz (first edition, I believe) defines $$ g_n := (\lambda - A)(\lambda_n - A)^{-1}g $$ for some fixed $ g $ but I see no guarantee that $(\lambda_n - A)^{-1} g ...
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Markov chain - Can anyone explain me why this is the solution?

Customers arrive according to a Poisson process at a rate of four customers per hour. A customer who finds four other customers in already waiting gives up and leaves. Some clients in the 3rd ...
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42 views

Show that the process created from taking kth steps of a markov chain is markov.

Suppose $(X_n)_{n\geq0}$ is a Markov chain with transition probability matrix $P$ and initial distribution $\lambda$. Show that the process $Y_n = (X_{kn})_{n\geq0}$ with $k$ fixed is Markov with ...
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258 views

Probability of going into an absorbing state

If I have a random walk Markov chain whose transition probability matrix is given by $$ \mathbf{P} = \matrix{~ & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 \\ 0 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ ...
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31 views

Showing Stronger result of Weak Law of Large Numbers

So, Khintchine's form of the Weak Law of Large Numbers asserts that $i) E(X_1)=0 \Rightarrow (S_n/n) \rightarrow 0$ The stronger result is: $ii) E(X_1)=0 \Rightarrow E(\|S_n\|)=o(n)$ Now ii) is ...
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91 views

Expected number of transition events to complete multiple synchronized Markov chains

Assume the expected number of transitions (events) it takes until a Markov chain with $G+1$ states ranging from $s=0$ to $s=G$ is completed is $M$. Suppose we have $K$ independent instances of this ...
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80 views

Markov Chain with heterogeneous transitions

I have a Markov chain as follows: $G+1$ finite states, it begins from $s=G$ and completes at $s=0$ A transition ($s\to s-1$) occurs in case if event $A$ happens. No other form of transition is ...
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76 views

Specifying transition probabilities for a Markov Chain

If I have a queueing model and I suppose at most a single customer arrives during a single period, but that the service time of a customer is a random variable Z with geometric probability ...
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The expected time until reaching a specified set in a Markov chain

I am reading an article in which they discuss a specific Markov chain in an example, and it turns out I need to sharpen up my Markov knowledge. First the setup. I have a continuous time Markov chain ...
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256 views

Urn Problem-Determining the Transition Probability Matrix

I have two urns A and B containing a total of N balls. An experiment is performed where a ball is selected at random (all selections equally likely) at time t(t=1,2,...) from the totality of N balls. ...
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Define a maximization problem as an optimal stopping problem

We work over $\mathbb{R}_+^L$. Let $V$ be the set of vectors whose coordinates take values $0$ or $1$. Let $\mathbf{w}(t)$ (in $\mathbb{R}_+^L$) a vector that changes each time slot. To each vector ...
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116 views

Finding the transition probably matrix

If I have an urn that contains six tags, three are red and three are green. Two tags are selected from the urn. If one tag is red and the other is green, then the selected tags are discarded and two ...
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Define Markov chain and rewrite to recursively solve

Customers arrive at a server with rate $\lambda$ and are served at rate $\mu$. The server breaks down with rate $\gamma$, which causes all customers to leave. New customers can only arrive once the ...
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Model as a continuous time Markov Chain

A system consists of two machines, of which one works and the other is standby. Only the working machine can break down (with rate $\lambda$). If it breaks down the other machine takes over (if it ...