Stochastic processes (with either discrete or continuous time dependence) on a discrete (finite or countably infinite) state space in which the distribution of the next state depends only on the current state. For Markov processes on continuous state spaces please use (markov-process) instead.

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329 views

In finite-state Markov chain state $i$ is transient

Can you help me please with proof of this question: Prove, that in finite-state Markov chain state $i$ is transient if and only if is exist state $k$ such that $i\rightarrow k$ but k $\nrightarrow ...
2
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238 views

Computing the stationary distribution of a markov chain

I have a markov chain with transition matrix below, $$\begin{bmatrix} 1-q & q & & & \\ 1-q & 0 & q & & \\ & 1-q & ...
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57 views

Green kernel of Hunt processes

Let $X$ be a regular Hunt process on $R^+$ with starting at $x$ and $T_y :=\inf\{t>0: X_t=y\}, y\in R^+$. $G_q(\cdot,\cdot), q >0$ denotes Green kernel of the process $X$. We have the following ...
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695 views

Classifying a Stochastic Process as transient, null-recurrent or positive-recurrent

For a discrete time Markov chain with state-space the non-negative integers, for $j>0$, $$ p_{j,k} = \begin{cases} p/j & \text{for } k = j+1 \\ 1 - 1/j & \text{for }k=j \\ (1-p)/j & ...
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283 views

Probability question about change in vending machines; maybe markov chain?

Suppose there are vending machine that sells its goods for $3$. It's known that a third of the buyers use three coins of $1$, a third of the buyers use $2$ and $1$, and the last third use $5$. The ...
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21 views

Statement of the strong Markov property in Norris' book

In J.R.Norris' Markov chains book, the strong Markov property for discrete-time, Markov chains is stated and proved as follows: Let $(X_n)_{n \geqslant 0}$ be a Markov chain with transition ...
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18 views

Perron-Frobenius Theorem: Markov Chain -> Matrices

I am interested in finding out a way how to transform the stochastic results of perron-frobenius for markov chains to any matrix. I am aware that perron-frobenius was originally proofed with linear ...
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28 views

Series with Markov Chains Probabilities

Notation For each $t \in \mathbb{N}$, let $h_t \in H$ be a random variable that follows a Markov chain, and $h^t \equiv \{h_0,h_1,\dots,h_t\} \in H^t$. Let $\Pi(h^{t})$ be the probability that a ...
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21 views

Reducing sequential correlations in Metropolis Algorithm

In our last lab, we use MCMC method to simulate a walker walking in the phase space. Using the Metropolis method, a walker at its currect position will sample another point inside a cube (centered at ...
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19 views

Pure Birth Question. Find the probability that the population at time $t$ is an odd # given it starts at $0$.

Here is the question. Consider a pure birth process $\{X(t) : t ≥ 0\}$ with birth parameters $\lambda_{2n} = α>0$ and $\lambda_{2n+1} =β>0$ for $n∈N$. Compute $Pr\{X(t) \text{ is odd } \mid ...
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43 views

For a finite state irreducible aperiodic MC, show that $P^{d^2}$ has all coordinates positive.

Suppose $X_n$ is an irreducible aperiodic finite state MC, with $P$ being the transition matrix. Then we know that $P^n$ has all positive entries for some $n\in\mathbb N$. If the state space $S$ of ...
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25 views

How to test quality of probability estimates?

I have a Markov chain model which produces a probability distribution for absorption in 4 possible absorbing states. I.e. the model estimates the probability distribution for a discrete random ...
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57 views

Prediction Interval from Markov Chains

Thank you for taking the time to look at my question. Short, less involved question: How do you find Prediction Intervals with non-Gaussian residuals? Here is the situation: I have made a model that ...
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24 views

When can an embedded Markov chain X for a Markov process Y be reducible?

It's pretty widely documented that a Markov process Y is reducible/irreducible if and only if the embedded Markov chain X is reducible/irreducible. However I'm not sure this works in reverse. I'm ...
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19 views

Harris Chain and Stationary Distribution

Consider a Harris chain given by $\{X_n\}$ with the following transition function, $X_{n+1}=\max \{0,X_n-b\} $ with probability $p$ and $X_{n+1}=\max \{0,a-\tau\} $ with probability $1-p$, where $\tau ...
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13 views

How to determine the transition probability in Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) for Particle Filter

Given a state-space model \begin{align} x_k &= f_k(x_{k-1}, v_{k-1}),\\ z_k &= h_k(x_k, w_k), \end{align} where $x_k \in {\mathbb R}^{n}$ and $y_k \in {\mathbb R}^{m}$ are the system state ...
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23 views

How is the following attitude true?(Markov chains)

Let us have an $X_n$ Markov-chain with finite $S$ set as domain. $A \subset S$ is given, so that $P_x(T_A < \infty) > 0$ for all $x \in S$. $T_A=\inf \{ n \geq 1: X_n \in A\}$. Then we take a ...
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28 views

Transform Markov chain that doesn't have stationary transition probabilities to one that does?

This question concerns Exercise 7.3 in Walsh's Knowing the Odds. A Markov chain is defined as having stationary transition probabilities if for all $i, j, n$ we have $P(X_{n+1} = j \mid X_n=i) = ...
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20 views

Two Markov chains $X_t$, $Y_t$ have the same transition matrix $P$, show $\Bbb P(\tau_c\le t_0) = \Bbb P(\tau_c\le 2t_0|\tau_c> t_0)$

Given two Markov chains $X_t$, $Y_t$ characterized by the same transition matrix $P$, let $\tau_c$ be the first time the two chains have the same state, i.e. $\tau_c = \min\{t:X_t=Y_t\}$. The ...
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19 views

Is this the same thing as some simple discrete probability distribution?

I want to count the number of trials until one success in a sequence where the success probability is increased with each failure. For each trial, the success probability is ...
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28 views

Probability that sample path ends at a high.

I am trying to get the probability that a sample path ends at a high. To formulate the problem, let sequence $\{S_n\}$ be a random walk, with $S_0 = 0$, defined by $$ S_n = \sum_{k=1}^n X_k$$ Where ...
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16 views

marginalised markov chain

If there is a Markov chain for the joint variable $z=(x,y)$, the marginal process $x$ is not, in general, Markovian itself. However, if we consider the probability of a two time step process ...
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41 views

What is the invariance principle of Random Walks?

Several papers I have read allude to the fact that a random walk is invariant; however, I have been unable to find any reference to support this fact. Could anyone explain why random walks are ...
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49 views

Finite irreducible Markov chain

The question I have is stated as follows: Show that for any finite-state irreducible Markov chain $$\max_{i,j}\mathbb E_iT_j\le C$$where the constant $C$ only depends on the number of states and ...
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78 views

Deduce the definition of a harmonic function in the context of a Markov Chain

We know from PDE that a harmonic function $f$ satisfies the mean value property, namely, $f(x)$ = $\frac{1}{\vert{B_r(x)}\vert}\int_{B_r(x)}f(y)dy$ where $B_r(x)$ is the ball about $x$ with radius ...
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31 views

Irreducible and positive recurrent CTMC — first passage times are finite?

Consider a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) $X$ on a countably infinite state space $S$. The CTMC is irreducible and all the states are positive recurrent. Let $T(i,j)$ be the first passage time to ...
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14 views

Rigorous Derivation of Metropolis-Hastings Transition Density

The Metropolis-Hastings MCMC algorithm is as follows. Set $X_0$ to some initial value in the support of the target density $f$ and choose a proposal density $q(y \mid x)$; a density in $y$ for each ...
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31 views

The “how many pieces do you have buy on average” problem, a markov problem?

I recently discovered a problem similar to this one in a book about Markov chains: Assume you can buy $n-$ different set of cards in a store, but you do not know which one you'll buy: What is the ...
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45 views

Identity for return times in continuous Markov chain

I need help with this problem about return times in continuous time Markov chains: We are given a continuous time Markov chain $(X_t)$. Define $T_i=\inf{\{t>0; X_t=i, X_{t-} \neq i\}}$, which ...
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34 views

An example of Markov chain with no closed class?

What is an example of Markov chain with no closed communicating class? Closed class means that once we are in that class, there would be no escape from it. I am thinking that an example would be ...
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19 views

recurrence time for transient state

I have the following transition matrix for a MC with state space $S = \{ 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 \}$ \begin{bmatrix} 0 & 0 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\ 0 & 0.4 ...
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51 views

Eigenvectors of Approximations to Infinite Stochastic Matrices

Given a function $[0,1]\to[0,1]\times[0,1]$ on the reals, such that the function is "stochastic" (probably an abuse of vocabulary: defined such that integrating along any vertical line gives $1$), ...
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64 views

Does a Markov process have memory zero?

I have the following question: The Markov process with two states and a transition matrix $$P =\begin{pmatrix} 0.3 & 0.7 \\ 0.3 & 0.7 \end{pmatrix}$$ has memory zero. Is it true? My ...
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33 views

Simple random walk on the $N$-cycle

I am considering the following example: In my lecture notes we noted that "the functions $(\phi_j)_j$ form a basis". I think they refer to the space $\mathbb{C}^G$ where $G$ is the above ...
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43 views

Markov chain of transition probabilities

Let $P$ be a transition matrix on a discrete state space with $N$ elements. $P_{i,j}$ is the probability of going from state $i$ to state $j$. Let $\pi$ be the stationary distribution. Let $\{X_n\}$ ...
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45 views

Birth-Death process with shifted exponential distribution

In the general framework of $M/M/1$ queue we have rate $\lambda$ and an exponential service time $\mu$, we can set up the transition rate matrix intuitively. However, if the service times satisfy ...
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25 views

Understanding a Markov decision process

We have an insect that is resting on a vertex of a square at each point of time $t=0,1,2..$. The vertices are labelled from 1 to 4. 1 is given to the lower left vertex, 3 to the upper left vertex, ...
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54 views

Finding a stationary distribution for a Markov chain with a binomially distributed transition matrix

The distribution isn't exactly binomial.. I'll explain what I mean: I am considering a Markov chain with N+1 states (denoted by $0,1,...,N$), the probability of going from state $i$ to state $j$ is ...
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19 views

convergence of markov chain, find distribution of limit

let $T=\mathbb{N}$ and $(X_t)_{t \in T}$ be a markov chain with state space $E=\{a,b\}$. the one step transition matrices are given by \begin{equation*} P(t,t+1)= \begin{pmatrix} 0,2+0,8f(t) ...
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16 views

Alternate Markvov Chain Model.

In class we are working on DTMCs for past couple of week, and in our last lecture we did an example. Question was: In a city of nowhere it only rains if there are clouds for successive m-days. Any ...
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53 views

Expected number of steps for a random walk- robot

A robot is located at the top-left corner of a m x n grid The robot is trying to reach the bottom-right corner of the grid, he can move randomly in any of the directions: up, down, left, right. ...
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29 views

Irreducible finite-state Markov Chain

Could anyone help me with this? Let $X_n$ be an irreducible Markov chain on the state space $S=\{1,\ldots,N\}$. Show that there exist $C<\infty$ and $\rho <1$ such that for any states $i,j$, ...
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79 views

Wald's Identity for non-i.i.d. Case

I am looking for Wald's Identity for non-i.i.d. case as discussed in the following links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wald%27s_equation What are the assumptions for applying Wald's equation ...
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35 views

The differences between the return times to a recurrent state of a discrete Markov chain are independent and identically distributed

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal A)$ be a measurable space and $\mathbb F=(\mathcal F_n)_{n\in\mathbb N_0}$ be a filtration on $(\Omega,\mathcal A)$ $E$ be an at most countable set equipped with the discrete ...
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61 views

Random walk evaluated by a Poisson process

I found the following proposition and I want to prove it. Let $S_n$ be a discrete-time random walk with increment distribution p and $N_t$ be a Poisson process with parameter $1$.Then the process ...
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38 views

An irreducible Markov chain is positive recurrent if and only if there is an invariant distribution

Let $E$ be an at most countable set equipped with the discrete topology $\mathcal E$ $X=(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb N_0}$ be a discrete Markov chain with values in $(E,\mathcal E)$, distributions ...
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30 views

Prove that $W_n := (X_n,Y_n)$ is a Markov chain and determine the transition probabilities.

Let $X_n$ be an irreducible, aperiodic, positive recurrent Markov chain $(\lambda,P)$ on a state space $I$, with stationary distribution $\pi$. Let $Y_n$ be Markov$(\pi,P)$, and independent of ...
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36 views

Probability Assessment of Interactive Markov Chain (IMC)

Firstly, consider a Markov chain in your mind. Probability of each state of the Markov chain can be obtained by following Chapman–Kolmogorov equation. $$ P(n\Delta t) = M^{n}P(0) $$ where P is the ...
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45 views

Blackwell's example in Markov process theory and Kolmogorov's extension theorem

I'm reading Continuous Time Markov Processes: An Introduction by Thomas M. Liggett. Chapter 2.4 is devoted to Blackwell's example. Let $E=\left\{0,1\right\}$, $\mathcal E:=2^E$ and $X$ be the ...
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37 views

Prove that uniform distribution on a set of vertices $V$ is stationary if the graph is regular.

I was going through Random walks on graphs: A survey It was stated that: Uniform distribution on a set of vertices $V$ is stationary if the graph is regular. Can anyone give me some hints to ...