0
votes
1answer
41 views

Calculating the chance of something happening over and over again

I'm trying to calculate the probability, and potential cost on society, of people returning to homelessness after going through the system one, two, or several more times. Let's say that someone who ...
1
vote
1answer
47 views

Conditional and unconditional variance in ARMA processes

How can I compute the conditional and unconditional variance of $x_t$ given its past if $\{x_t\}$ is an ARMA$(p,q)$ process. I'm literally struggling over that. Cheers
0
votes
1answer
73 views

Von Neumann–Morgenstern independence axiom vs. Savage independence theorm

Von Neumann–Morgenstern independence axiom: Savage independence theorem: What is the difference between the two? I'm think Von Neumann is talking about the prizes (outcomes) and Savage is talking ...
3
votes
1answer
103 views

The Historical Importance of Keynes' A Treatise on Probability

A visiting speaker in Economics recently happened to mention that John Maynard Keynes' A Treatise on Probability revolutionized probability theory. I have not heard any such claim before and it struck ...
0
votes
0answers
46 views

Put-Call-Parity of Asian Options

I could need some help with deriving the put-call-parity for asian options. Let $S_t$ be the price of the underlying asset at time $t$ and set $Y_t = \int_0^t S_t dt$. Then the payoff of an asian ...
2
votes
1answer
35 views

Arbitrage opportunity for call price set on avarage

I have the following problem. Let C(K) be the market price of a Option Call with respect to the strike K. Let $C(100) = \frac{C(110)+C(90)}{2}$, then show that there exists an arbitrage opportunity. ...
0
votes
0answers
124 views

Computing the certainty equivalent for the lottery of infinite expected value

How can I compute the certainty equivalent for the lottery for someone whose Bernoulli utility function is $u(x)=\frac{x^{1-\gamma }}{1-\gamma }$ where $0< \gamma < 1$? Also, how much would the ...
8
votes
1answer
261 views

Modelling risk when market making

I'm interested in learning about algorithmic trading, particularly in bitcoin. Looking at this chart, I can see that I could simultaneously offer a bid that was slightly higher than the highest ...
1
vote
1answer
89 views

Properties of concave,two-parameter function

I already showed that the function $\psi(\mu,\sigma)=\mathbb{E}U(X)$ is concave in $(\mu,\sigma)$, where $X$ is normally distributed with mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2$. $U$ is a nice concave ...
1
vote
1answer
583 views

Mean preserving spread vs higher variance

In the Wikipedia article for mean-preserving spread, the following is claimed without citation: If B is a mean-preserving spread of A, then B has a higher variance than A; but the converse is not ...
0
votes
1answer
2k views

Can someone explain what plim is?

In my Introductory Econometrics class we discussed a concept of "plim" or "probability limit. I'm not sure what this means though and my professor doesn't explain it well at all. Can someone tell me ...
0
votes
1answer
545 views

bounding the the expected value of the maximum of two random variables

Consider two standardized random variables $x$ and $y$, and define a function $g(x,y)=E[max(x,y)]$ where $E$ is the expected value operator. My question is finding the upper and lower bounds of ...
2
votes
1answer
427 views

Solving a Maximum Likelihood Estimation with an exponential distribution

I need someone's insight on applying a MLE for an exponential distribution. In a finance paper, I have the following: $\displaystyle d_i \sim \frac{\epsilon_i}{\lambda_i}$ where $\epsilon_i$ is ...
0
votes
0answers
237 views

Monotonicity of expectation of a concave function of a random variable wrt the variance of the random variable

This is a question motivated from utility function. (See here and here.) I have been trying to develop some common sense in Economics by the way. Given a function $f: \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}$ and a ...
0
votes
1answer
64 views

Probability of a new number given a set of $n$ previous numbers?

I have a set of numbers (each one corresponding to a payment made from the same person) and I would like to assign a probability value to a new specified number given that historical data. I've ...
0
votes
0answers
182 views

Understanding a Proof in Probability Theory

My question is pretty simple: I have two equations which are supposedly true (from a published paper) but I have no idea how to arrive at the solution myself. So it would be great if someone could a) ...
1
vote
1answer
155 views

Normal distribution probability

just a quick question dealing with probability. The annual returns on stocks and treasury bonds over the next 12 months are uncertain. Suppose that these returns can be described by normal ...
5
votes
1answer
227 views

Measure of value of resources in a competitive game

Let we have a competitive survival game in which a player has choice between different resources to earn. The question here is which resource should he prefer to maximize the chance of survival. I ...