Here's a disease D. Its probability of happening in general population is 3%. P(D)=0.03 If parent has D, so the chance that children will have D is 15%. P(P|C)=0.15 Parent has 2 children.One child developed D.
What is probability that parent has D as well? What is probability that another child develops D?
My solution for first question:
P(D)=0.03; P(P|C)=0.15; also P(C)=0.03 and P(P)=0.03; $P(\overline C)$=0.97 $P(P|\overline C)$=0.5 => P(C|P)=P(P|C)*P(C)/(P(P|C)*P(C) + $P(\overline C)$*$P(P|\overline C)$)=(0.15*0.03)/(0.15*0.03+0.97*0.5)=0.00919