This is a question my wife and I pondered over at the breakfast table this morning: Belgium has two athletes in the finals of the 400m at the World Championship athletics this year.
What are Belgium's chances of getting a medal, assuming every runner has the same capabilities? Plus, what's the formula/explanation for calculating this?
I know/think that, if we'd have 1 athlete, it would be 3/8, because there are 3 possible medals, and 8 athletes competing. (I hope this step is correct?)
But what if you have 2 athletes? Is it then just 6/8? Intuitively, that feels incorrect. But I would love to get a decent explanation on how to calculate this.