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Does anyone know of a Bayesian (or a classical) analysis of the Venetian Doge election system? I am looking mainly for chances of subversion, chances for a candidate to be elected at each stage, or ideally a Bayesian game theory model of the elections.

Electing the Doge of Venice: analysis of a 13th Century protocol and 64% Majority Rule in Ducal Venice: Voting for the Doge have information about the way the elections were handled.

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Maybe there's something in Marji Lines, Approval voting and strategy analysis: A Venetian example, Theory and Decision 20 (1986) 155-172, DOI: 10.1007/BF00135090.

Abstract: The author presents a historic reconstruction of the single-member constituency election system known as approval voting which was used to elect Venetian dogi for over 500 years. An interesting procedure theoretically, concurrent approval voting is the only sincere single-winner election system. Central issues concerning strategy choice under uncertainty are investigated using a contingency-dependent framework of individual behavior given prior probability distributions over decision relevant propositions. Extensions are then proposed for the use of approval procedures in modern elections and other collective decision-making situations. Finally the advantages of trichotomous preferences in decision and strategy analysis are argued.

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