I have a dataset where an ostensibly 50% process has been tested 118 times and has come up positive 84 times.
My actual question:
- IF a process has a 50% chance of testing positive and
- IF you then run it 118 times
- What is the probability that you get AT LEAST 84 successes?
My gut feeling is that, the more tests are run, the closer to a 50% success rate I should get and so something might be wrong with the process (That is, it might not truly be 50%) but at the same time, it looks like it's running correctly, so I want to know what the chances are that it's actually correct and I've just had a long string of successes.