I am hoping that this is not too basic a question for this site, but I am seeking to better understand a conversation I have had with my more mathematically inclined friend.
The discussion was around the probability of an event occuring with repeated exposure to a specific activity. The example in the conversation was the risk of (for example) injury occuring compared between someone who was a frequent skydiver (perhaps weekly) and someone who skydives once or twice a year.
For the point of this exercise we are ignoring all external factors (wind, experience, etc) and are assuming that the risk of any injury (i.e. not one that would preclude someone from continuing to skydive) is fixed for each event. That is, as with a coin toss, each individual event is unaffected by the other events.
To my mind it makes more sense that the person who chooses to skydive regularly is accepting a higher risk over the course of the year then the person who skydives once a year. My friend contests that the risk of an event happening is equal for both people over the course of the year. He attempted to explain this to me, but could not in a way that I understood.
To clarify, I don't believe the risk increases cumulatively (i.e. if there was a 1/10 chance of something happening in one dive then I understand that this does not mean that something will definitely happen if a person dives 10 times).
I am quite curious about which answer is correct, probability was always one of those areas that I sometimes found to be non-intuitive. Any insight here would be appreciated