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Can you show all the steps needed for a Bayesian probability progression as new information is received. As an example, initial estimate for Obama to win (popular vote) is 55%. In state-A, Democrats usually get 51.5% of the vote but receive 57% of the vote after 10% of the ballots have been counted. In state-B,Democrats receive 48% 0f the vote after 5% of of the ballots have been counted.

3 or 4 new pieces of data come in from other states (your choice of numbers).

What I am interested in are the calculations one goes through to get the final probability estimate.

I want to display this to 15 - 16 year old high school students.

Thank you for any help that you can give me.

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Sheldon, if you're interested, please take a look at my Q on Bayesian prediction of SuperBowl Coin toss. Unfortunately the Q was closed but I assure you the computations are correct. In fact I will reword it and ask a similar Q in the near future. –  alancalvitti Feb 20 '13 at 18:17
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