I have a desired percentage, 33%, and a 100-sided dice. I also have the number of times the dice has been rolled, and the number of times the dice roll has been successfully under the desired percentage.
How would I go about changing the desired percentage to match the real results? Such that when the dice has been rolled 3 times and succeeded 1 time, the target is the default of 33. Yet when the dice has been rolled 4 times and succeeded 1 time, the target increases (and so becomes easier), and when the dice has been rolled 3 times and succeeded 2 times, the target decreases (and becomes more difficult) by going down to around 16. It's also important that the target never reaches 100% or 0%, ideally capping out at 99% or 1% for a really long string of lucky/unlucky rolls.
If you could post an example with the actual numbers plugged in that would be super helpful, too.