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I have to talk about conditional probability, Bayes theorem and law of large numbers. It is a talk for students who are not pure mathematicians, then it is in a simple way.

I have prepared some activities, for example to the law of large numbers, an activity with the function ALEATORIO.ENTRE(x;y) in Excel (this function makes "random" integers between $x$ and $y$), to simulate rolling a dice and calculate the frecuency probability approaches the theoretical probability.

Also, I have some videos (in Spanish) on the subject (history and short "games").

Any other ideas? References?

Thank you very much.

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while "aleatory" is a word in English, I believe the word you're looking for is "random". –  Robert Mastragostino Oct 25 '12 at 15:41
    
@Robert, you are right, sorry for my English. –  Hiperion Oct 25 '12 at 15:43
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1 Answer

up vote 1 down vote accepted

You might take a look at http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/science/08tier.html for a nice application of conditional probabilities.

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Thank you very much :) –  Hiperion Oct 25 '12 at 16:02
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