I am working at the Paris motor show. Everyday there is a draw where you can play for free and win a video camera if your name is picked. We are a team of 10 employees. We are all playing. The chance of winning is one in 200 but there are 10 of us playing which makes it a 5% chance of winning the draw (I know it is not exactly 5% it is slightly more but let's say that it is 5%). Am I right in concluding that if we play 13 times (that is everyday till the end of the motor show) the probability of one of us winning is around 48% ? My reasonning is as follows: probability of winning is 5% that is 0.05, therefore probability of not winning is 0.95 probability of not winning any of the 13 draws 0.95^13 that is: 0.51334208327951 probability of wining at least one of the draws: 1-0.51334208327951≈0.48 Let me know if I am wrong. My math skills are poor. I know that probability can be really misleading, but I guess that I followed the right method.Thanks in advance for your help.