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I'm reading Beat the Dealer and I'm confused why you hit when holding a hard twelve against a dealer up card of two or three. You stand on a hard twelve if the dealer shows a 4-6. Can someone explain why this is so?

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Aren't decisions based on the current status of the deck because you counted the cards already played? These probbailities change and getting the edge is knowing that while the dealers rules are fixed. –  Michael Chernick Sep 28 '12 at 14:08
    
Your correct however basic strategy is the statistically optimal move for every given scenario without considering card counting methods. –  Andrew Kudwitt Sep 28 '12 at 14:14
    
I don't know if you really have an edge when you ignore counting and if you do it is not much of one and gamblers ruining is more probable. I think the point of Thorpe's book is to get the best chance of winning using counting maximizes your edge over the dealer. –  Michael Chernick Sep 28 '12 at 14:34

1 Answer 1

When the dealer has a two or three showing, it's less likely the he'll bust than if he has a four to six showing. You have to do lots of calculations to see when exactly when you're better off hitting or standing, but that's the basic reason.

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