# A probabilistic and trend analysis.

There does not seem to be any statistical Q&A so I assume all the statisticians are on this site.

This question is very theoretical and is based on analysing voting systems. I have a very simple example here that does not include millions of people across various demographics.

I have outlined 2 red lines that try to determine a voting trend.

1. Top 2 candidates did very well with a mean vote of 40 between them
2. Bottom 3 candidates have far less votes but seem to create their own trend.

The cyan lines are a visual attempt to establish trends and display established trends for these 2 groups. A total vote mean is identified in green and does not intersect with any trend.

The values of the elections are:

• Voters that participated 96
• Votes cast 96/288 (Each voter could vote for up to 3 candidates)

My main question is how do I calculate the probability of voters that cast 1 vote, 2 votes and 3 votes in a cumulative result.

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stats.stackexchange.com is the stats StackExchange -- however, you may still find help here with some questions. – Arkamis Aug 9 '12 at 16:11
Voters typically don't vote randomly. If you want to calculate probabilities, you'll need a probabilistic model first. Do you have one in mind? – joriki Aug 9 '12 at 16:24
I think the question it self is me asking what model I will need. to try and calculate the probability of a majority voting for a single candidate and/or also the percentile that cast 2 or more votes based on popularity... and allow me to adjust the number of voters and influence from popularity.. – ppumkin Aug 9 '12 at 18:30