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I take a single trade every morning and have has a success rate of 57.8% over the last year.

Given that there are only 2 possible outcomes (I win or I lose) I have given some thought to employing a martingale run (think that's what it's called!)

Using this method, I need to cover 66 trading days without having a run of 5 losses in order to make a profit. Can anyone tell me how I might calculate the risk of adopting such an approach?

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Your question may (though I am not sure) be better suited for quant.stackexchange.com – Willie Wong Jul 25 '12 at 11:30

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