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I would like to know how to calculate the probability of finding an alphabetically ordered subset of at least K elements in a set of N alphabetical elements.

For example, for a set of N letters from A to from A to E ordered randomly, what is the probability that I will find a subset of at least 2 alphabetically order letters (ex. AB, BD, CE) at any position in the list?

I know the answer to this is 119/120 because I've done it manually. But I need to be able to calculate it for larger N and K values. Can somebody help?

Forgive me if I'm not using the right terminology (I'm new to this), I hope my question is still clear enough.

Thank you in advance, P.

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  • $\begingroup$ Alphabetically ordered in consecutive positions (BD) or any positions (B - D) ? $\endgroup$ Mar 15, 2016 at 5:36
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    $\begingroup$ OP means any positions. Only that is consistent with 119/120. $\endgroup$
    – talegari
    Mar 15, 2016 at 6:34

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We are looking $$\frac{n! - G_k(n)}{n!}$$ where $G_k(n)$ is number of permutations of $[n]$ which avoid the pattern $12\dots k$. Zeilberger's paper, helps you compute it (a maple program is included).

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