# What is the probability of two people sitting side by side each catching a home run in the same game?

Yesterday, in Edmonton, at a baseball game two of my friends caught a home run, in separate plays during the game, and I am wondering where to begin in analyzing what the probability of this happening was? They were sitting beside each other. This happened at the Telus Field which has a capacity of 10, 000. The field dimensions: Left: 340 ft (100 m) Centre: 420 ft (130 m) Right: 320 ft (98 m)

Unfortunately, I don't think these dimensions include the seating area (I found these dimensions on wikipedia). How can I approach this problem?

To constrict the problem a little, I try to define the possible landing areas of the ball as squares with sides, roughly the diameter of the ball, which fill the area of shape representing the total possible landing positions. This shape would extend out from the batter's position following the foul lines into the stands, the distance between the lines increasing as you travel further from the batter. I am not including the area outside of the foul lines, and the grid of squares representing the possible positions would extend into the far reaches of the stands. I am assuming that the baseball is 3inches in diameter. Probabilistically, would I need to know which area of squares is landed on most frequently? And would I need to know their exact seating positions?

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I don't think the restrictions help much. You have to take account of each pitch. Given the pitch, what is the probability that it will be hit? If it is hit, what is the probability that it will go fair? If it goes fair what is the probability that it will be hit into the seats for a home run? Then given that it is a home run inot the seats what is the dsitribution of the location that it will land? This will no tbe uniform. Lefthand hitters are more likely to hit the ball to right field and right hand hitters to left field. – Michael Chernick Jun 16 '12 at 16:51
So if you model it as non-uniform with distribution dependent on lefthanded or righthanded then you may want to say where the two seats were located. – Michael Chernick Jun 16 '12 at 16:51