first of all I want to say hey to all! I have been a long time lurker and follower of these forums and have been known to find a lot of your answers helping me out throughout my college life.
I also know that you just don't like to spit out the answers for those who don't put in the effort so here it goes:
This is a very basic conditional probability question, but I can't seem to find a trick in solving these questions and they always get me. Any help would be greatly appreciated. The question is as follows:
The air rescue service of the armed forces divided the flight path of a downed plane into search sectors. In one mission a search plane will overfly every square kilometer of the designated sector. From past experience, one knows however that in one mission there is only a 50% chance of spotting a plane down in a sector of tundra. There is a 40% chance of spotting a plane down in a forested sector and a 15% chance of spotting a plane down in a lake sector. (a) A small plane is down in an area containing two sectors of tundra, one lake sector and one forested sector and a priori the plane has an equal chance of being down in any one of the fours sectors. The mission director decides to use the first mission to search the two sectors of tundra. What is the probability of spotting the downed plane?
(b) Given that we did not find the plane in the tundra sections, what is the probability that the plane is (i) in the tundra sections? (ii) in the forested section? (iii) in the lake sector?
Ok, so for a) what I did was basically the plane is going over the two sectors of Tundra which has a probability of 50% of containing the downed plane. So P(T) . P(T) would be 0.5*0.5 = 0.25 is the probability of finding the plane in the two sectors of Tundra, right?
for b) (i) I said P(Finding Plane | Tundra) = P(Finding Plane intersect Tundra) / P(Finding Plane) (ii) P(Finding Plane | Forest) = P(Finding Plane intersect Forest) / P(Finding Plane) (iii) P(Finding Plane | Lake) = P(Finding Plane intersect Lake) / P(Finding Plane)
P(Finding Plane) would be the total probability of finding the plane in each sector so given that it has an equal chance of being in either sector 2/4 * P(Tundra) + 1/4 * P(Forest) + 1/4*P(Lake)
I am not sure about my answers nor my approach to this problem. Any tricks or tips to solve this problem or conditional probability in general?